Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FGUS73 KDVN 202254
ESFDVN
IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-
115-139-163-177-183-ILC011-015-067-071-073-085-109-131-155-161-177-
187-195-MOC045-199-282359-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
454 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...

THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR THE QUAD CITIES
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF EASTERN
IOWA...NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ITS TRIBUTARIES FROM BELOW GUTTENBERG LD10 IOWA TO BELOW GREGORY
LANDING MISSOURI. THE OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TIME PERIOD FROM LATE
FEBRUARY THROUGH LATE MAY.

THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS A STATISTICAL LOOK AT THE RISK FOR
FLOODING DUE TO SNOWMELT AND NORMAL SPRING THAWING CONDITIONS.
THESE VALUES DO NOT REFLECT THE FLOODING POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE JAMS.
THE OUTLOOK ASSUMES NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR DURING THE OUTLOOK TIME PERIOD. IF TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION ARE NOT NEAR NORMAL...THEN THE ACTUAL RISK OF FLOODING
MAY DIFFER FROM WHAT THE OUTLOOK CURRENTLY INDICATES.

...THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF SPRING FLOODING FOR THE ROCK RIVER
AND PECATONICA RIVER IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THE SPRING FLOOD RISK
FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FROM
NEAR DUBUQUE DOWNSTREAM TO GREGORY LANDING...

...THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHEASTERN
MISSOURI TRIBUTARY RIVERS IS GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL...

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WINTER...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL
SOIL MOISTURE AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL STREAM LEVELS WERE IN PLACE
ENTERING THE WINTER SEASON AND CONTINUED THROUGH THE WINTER.

OF NOTE ARE THE SIGNIFICANT FROST DEPTHS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
WITH THE BELOW NORMAL WINTER TEMPERATURES. THE DEEPLY FROZEN SOILS
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS WILL
BE A FACTOR TO WATCH AS SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL ON FROZEN GROUND WILL
RUNOFF QUICKLY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AND CHANGES TO THE SNOWPACK
WILL ALSO INFLUENCE THE SPRING SNOWMELT FLOOD PROBABILITIES IN THE
COMING WEEKS.

THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS DURING THE SPRING MELT
PERIOD. ICE THICKNESS OF AROUND 2 FEET HAS BEEN REPORTED ON MANY
AREA TRIBUTARY RIVERS. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING FROM ICE JAMS DEPENDS
ON HOW HIGH THE RIVER LEVELS ARE WHEN THE ICE BREAKS UP.


IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID  PERIOD: 2/25/2014 - 5/26/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DUBUQUE LD11        16.0   17.0   20.5 :  61   49   50   36   16    9
DUBUQUE             17.0   18.0   21.5 :  69   49   56   44   16   10
BELLEVUE LD12       17.0   18.0   20.0 :  38   33   23   21   16    9
FULTON LD13         16.0   18.0   20.0 :  61   49   33   27   16    9
CAMANCHE            17.0   18.5   20.5 :  56   49   35   30   16   10
LECLAIRE LD14       11.0   12.0   13.5 :  58   49   41   33   16   16
ROCK ISLAND LD15    15.0   16.0   18.0 :  75   53   60   49   29   21
ILL. CITY LD16      15.0   16.0   18.0 :  69   52   55   44   27   20
MUSCATINE           16.0   18.0   20.0 :  78   56   55   44   26   20
NEW BOSTON LD17     15.0   16.5   18.5 :  84   56   61   50   35   24
KEITHSBURG          14.0   15.5   17.0 :  81   58   50   46   27   21
GLADSTONE LD18      10.0   12.0   14.0 :  83   60   47   44   24   20
BURLINGTON          15.0   16.5   18.0 :  78   58   47   47   27   23
KEOKUK LD19         16.0   17.5   19.0 :  29   27   26   21   16    7
GREGORY LANDING     15.0   18.0   25.0 :  72   61   30   36   <5   <5
:MAQUOKETA RIVER
MANCHESTER HWY 20   14.0   17.0   20.0 :  20   18   13   10   <5   <5
MAQUOKETA           24.0   26.0   28.5 :  63   21   43   12   20    6
:WAPSIPINICON RIVER
INDEPENDENCE        12.0   13.0   15.0 :  10   10    7    7    7    7
ANAMOSA SHAW RD     14.0   15.5   19.0 :  23   26   18   21    7    9
DE WITT             11.0   11.5   12.5 :  64   64   52   63   20   24
:CEDAR RIVER
VINTON              15.0   18.0   19.0 :  15   16    6    7   <5   <5
CEDAR RAPIDS        12.0   14.0   16.0 :  20   23    9   12   <5    6
CONESVILLE          13.0   15.0   16.5 :  52   52   12   13   <5    7
:IOWA RIVER
MARENGO             14.0   15.5   18.5 :  58   72   35   58   <5   <5
IOWA CITY           22.0   23.0   25.0 :  <5    6   <5    6   <5   <5
LONE TREE           15.0   16.5   18.0 :  18   29   12   15   <5   10
COLUMBUS JCT        19.0   22.0   23.0 :  36   50   13   16   10   12
WAPELLO             20.0   22.0   25.0 :  49   58   29   46   10   12
:ENGLISH RIVER
KALONA              14.0   16.0   18.0 :  33   40   18   27   12   15
:NORTH SKUNK RIVER
SIGOURNEY           16.0   18.0   21.0 :  55   53   33   35    9    9
:SKUNK RIVER
AUGUSTA             15.0   17.0   20.0 :  40   41   23   24    7   10
:DES MOINES RIVER
KEOSAUQUA           22.0   25.0   27.0 :   6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
ST FRANCISVILLE     18.0   22.0   25.0 :  30   49    7   10   <5   <5
:PECATONICA RIVER
FREEPORT            13.0   14.0   16.0 :  92   41   83   21   26   <5
:ROCK RIVER
COMO                10.0   11.0   12.0 :  61   16   49   12   30    7
JOSLIN              12.0   14.0   16.5 :  92   49   73   23   46   10
MOLINE              12.0   13.0   14.0 :  90   44   75   26   58   18
:GREEN RIVER
GENESEO             15.0   16.5   18.0 :  23   20   12   13    6    7
:LA MOINE RIVER
COLMAR              20.0   22.0   24.0 :  64   61   41   36   21   18
:ILLINOIS RIVER
LA SALLE            20.0   27.0   31.0 : >95   70   30   16   <5   <5
HENRY               23.0   24.0   31.0 :  84   55   72   44   <5   <5
:FOX RIVER
WAYLAND             15.0   18.0   20.0 :  23   23    7    9   <5   <5


LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                              CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 2/25/2014 - 5/26/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DUBUQUE LD11         13.0   14.2   15.1   17.0   18.4   22.1   24.5
DUBUQUE              14.4   15.8   16.7   18.7   20.0   23.6   26.0
BELLEVUE LD12        12.9   13.9   14.7   16.6   17.9   21.2   22.7
FULTON LD13          13.5   14.4   15.2   17.1   18.5   21.9   23.7
CAMANCHE             14.4   15.1   15.8   17.8   19.3   23.1   24.8
LECLAIRE LD14         9.4    9.9   10.3   11.8   13.0   16.2   18.2
ROCK ISLAND LD15     13.4   14.2   15.1   16.8   18.3   21.2   23.0
ILL. CITY LD16       13.2   13.5   14.7   16.5   18.5   21.9   24.0
MUSCATINE            14.8   15.1   16.4   18.4   20.2   22.8   24.6
NEW BOSTON LD17      14.4   14.7   15.8   17.6   19.7   22.5   24.1
KEITHSBURG           12.8   13.4   14.5   15.6   17.6   19.8   21.4
GLADSTONE LD18        8.9    9.4   10.6   11.8   14.1   16.8   18.8
BURLINGTON           13.8   14.3   15.2   16.4   18.6   21.0   22.9
KEOKUK LD19          10.6   11.2   12.5   14.4   18.0   20.5   22.4
GREGORY LANDING      12.2   13.1   15.0   16.9   20.1   23.0   24.7
:MAQUOKETA RIVER
MANCHESTER HWY 20     6.9    7.4    7.9    9.7   12.9   18.4   20.0
MAQUOKETA            15.7   17.5   21.2   25.6   27.5   29.2   31.0
:WAPSIPINICON RIVER
INDEPENDENCE          6.5    6.8    7.3    8.1    8.9   12.1   18.7
ANAMOSA SHAW RD       8.5    9.1   10.1   12.0   13.8   18.1   23.5
DE WITT               8.4    9.2   10.3   11.6   12.2   12.9   13.5
:CEDAR RIVER
VINTON                7.8    7.9    9.4   11.4   13.4   16.5   18.9
CEDAR RAPIDS          6.1    6.2    6.9    8.5   10.8   14.2   17.1
CONESVILLE           10.3   10.7   11.6   13.1   14.2   15.6   17.1
:IOWA RIVER
MARENGO               8.2    9.2   11.0   14.7   16.3   17.5   17.7
IOWA CITY            12.3   12.5   15.0   16.7   19.0   19.6   21.6
LONE TREE             7.4    8.6   10.8   12.8   14.0   17.2   17.9
COLUMBUS JCT         13.6   14.4   16.4   17.9   20.9   23.1   25.0
WAPELLO              15.5   16.5   18.8   20.1   22.9   25.4   26.4
:ENGLISH RIVER
KALONA                7.6    8.4   11.1   12.5   15.1   19.2   20.2
:NORTH SKUNK RIVER
SIGOURNEY             9.9   11.3   14.3   16.8   18.6   21.1   22.3
:SKUNK RIVER
AUGUSTA               5.1    6.3   10.0   13.7   16.5   19.7   22.2
:DES MOINES RIVER
KEOSAUQUA            11.7   12.1   15.9   17.7   19.2   20.9   22.1
ST FRANCISVILLE       8.6    8.9   14.2   16.6   18.9   21.7   22.7
:PECATONICA RIVER
FREEPORT             12.6   13.6   14.2   15.0   16.1   16.7   17.0
:ROCK RIVER
COMO                  7.0    7.4    8.9   11.0   12.4   13.7   14.1
JOSLIN               11.8   12.4   14.0   16.3   18.3   19.4   20.4
MOLINE               11.4   12.2   13.1   14.9   16.1   17.5   18.4
:GREEN RIVER
GENESEO               7.9    9.3   10.9   12.9   14.8   17.3   20.1
:LA MOINE RIVER
COLMAR               10.9   13.7   17.0   21.3   23.3   25.0   26.2
:ILLINOIS RIVER
LA SALLE             20.2   21.5   23.4   24.8   27.2   29.8   31.5
HENRY                21.2   21.9   23.8   25.3   26.7   28.1   28.9
:FOX RIVER
WAYLAND               4.8    5.5    8.7   11.7   14.8   17.5   18.7

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 2/25/2014 - 5/26/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DUBUQUE LD11          3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.3    3.3
DUBUQUE               7.0    7.0    7.0    7.0    7.0    7.0    6.9
BELLEVUE LD12         2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.8
FULTON LD13           3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9    3.9
CAMANCHE              8.7    8.7    8.7    8.7    8.7    8.7    8.7
LECLAIRE LD14         4.2    4.2    4.2    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1
ROCK ISLAND LD15      3.7    3.7    3.7    3.6    3.6    3.6    3.6
ILL. CITY LD16        3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1
MUSCATINE             5.6    5.6    5.6    5.6    5.6    5.5    5.5
NEW BOSTON LD17       2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.8
KEITHSBURG            5.2    5.1    5.1    5.1    5.1    5.1    5.1
GLADSTONE LD18        0.7    0.7    0.7    0.7    0.6    0.6    0.6
BURLINGTON            7.3    7.3    7.2    7.2    7.2    7.2    7.2
KEOKUK LD19           2.3    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2
GREGORY LANDING       6.2    6.2    6.2    6.2    6.2    6.2    6.2
:MAQUOKETA RIVER
MANCHESTER HWY 20     3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.4
MAQUOKETA             9.8    9.7    9.7    9.7    9.7    9.7    9.7
:WAPSIPINICON RIVER
INDEPENDENCE          4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5
ANAMOSA SHAW RD       4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4    4.4
DE WITT               4.1    4.1    4.0    4.0    4.0    3.9    3.9
:CEDAR RIVER
VINTON                1.5    1.5    1.5    1.4    1.4    1.4    1.3
CEDAR RAPIDS          3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.0
CONESVILLE            5.6    5.6    5.6    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.4
:IOWA RIVER
MARENGO               5.5    5.4    5.4    5.3    5.2    5.1    5.0
IOWA CITY            10.2   10.1    9.7    9.3    9.1    9.0    9.0
LONE TREE             5.1    5.0    4.9    4.4    3.9    3.6    3.6
COLUMBUS JCT          9.0    9.0    8.9    8.9    8.8    8.6    8.5
WAPELLO              11.0   10.9   10.9   10.8   10.6   10.4   10.3
:ENGLISH RIVER
KALONA                4.6    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.4    4.2    4.1
:NORTH SKUNK RIVER
SIGOURNEY             4.1    4.1    4.0    4.0    3.9    3.8    3.7
:SKUNK RIVER
AUGUSTA               2.1    2.0    1.9    1.9    1.7    1.2    1.1
:DES MOINES RIVER
KEOSAUQUA            10.6   10.6   10.5   10.4   10.1    9.8    9.8
ST FRANCISVILLE       6.9    6.9    6.8    6.6    6.2    5.6    5.5
:PECATONICA RIVER
FREEPORT              3.0    3.0    3.0    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.8
:ROCK RIVER
COMO                  3.2    3.2    3.2    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.0
JOSLIN                4.6    4.6    4.6    4.5    4.4    4.4    4.3
MOLINE                8.0    8.0    8.0    8.0    7.9    7.9    7.9
:GREEN RIVER
GENESEO               3.4    3.3    3.2    3.2    3.0    2.8    2.7
:LA MOINE RIVER
COLMAR                3.6    3.6    3.5    3.3    3.1    2.9    2.8
:ILLINOIS RIVER
LA SALLE             11.9   11.7   11.6   11.5   11.3   11.0   10.9
HENRY                15.2   15.1   15.0   15.0   14.8   14.6   14.5
:FOX RIVER
WAYLAND               1.8    1.8    1.8    1.8    1.6    1.5    1.4


...FLOOD TERMINOLOGY...

THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY
DAMAGE. HOWEVER SOME PUBLIC THREAT OR INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.

MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF STRUCTURES
AND ROADS NEAR STREAMS. SOME EVACUATIONS OF PEOPLE AND/OR TRANSFER
OF PROPERTY TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY.

MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION OF
STRUCTURES AND BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS. USUALLY SIGNIFICANT
EVACUATIONS OF PEOPLE AND/OR TRANSFER OF PROPERTY TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ARE NECESSARY.


...CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF FEBRUARY 20 2014...

.SNOW DEPTH AND LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT...ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
SNOWFALL HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED THIS WINTER...HOWEVER THE WATER
CONTENT OF THE SNOW HAS NOT BEEN ABOVE NORMAL. THE LIQUID WATER
EQUIVALENT OF THE SNOW COVER RANGES FROM A TRACE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT IS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXIST TO THE NORTH BUT ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH
RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASIN IN MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN.

.SOIL MOISTURE...BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE
ENTERING THE WINTER SEASON AND REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

.FROST DEPTH...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WINTER HAVE RESULTED
IN A SIGNIFICANT FROST DEPTH. GREATER THAN NORMAL FROST DEPTHS OF 2
TO 3 FEET ARE AFFECTING THE AREA. THE DEEPLY FROZEN SOILS ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS WILL BE A
FACTOR TO WATCH AS SNOWMELT AND RAINFALL ON FROZEN GROUND WILL
RUNOFF QUICKLY.

.STREAM LEVELS...STREAM LEVELS WERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL ENTERING
THIS WINTER SEASON AND CONTINUED GENERALLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE WINTER.


...WEATHER OUTLOOK...

NOW THROUGH EARLY MARCH...

THERE ARE INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM NOW THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK IN MARCH.

FOR MARCH THROUGH MAY...

NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY. EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE...NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE OUTLOOKED FOR THE
AREA. NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING WOULD ALLEVIATE
SOIL MOISTURE SHORTAGES.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
THURSDAY...MARCH 6 2014.

YOU CAN FIND THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS...WEATHER AND
RIVER INFORMATION ON OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/QUADCITIES .

$$

STOFLET





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