Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FGUS73 KDVN 031637
ESFDVN
IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-
115-139-163-177-183-ILC011-015-067-071-073-085-109-131-155-161-177-
187-195-MOC045-199-312359-

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1133 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2014

IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                    VALID  PERIOD: 7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014

                                       :    CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
                                       :     CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
                                       :       FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                       :      AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
                      CATEGORICAL      :
                   FLOOD STAGES (FT)   :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION           MINOR   MOD   MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DUBUQUE LD11        16.0   17.0   20.5 :   7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DUBUQUE             17.0   18.0   21.5 :   7   <5    6   <5   <5   <5
BELLEVUE LD12       17.0   18.0   20.0 :   6   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
FULTON LD13         16.0   18.0   20.0 :   9    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
CAMANCHE            17.0   18.5   20.5 :   7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
LECLAIRE LD14       11.0   12.0   13.5 :   7    6   <5    6   <5   <5
ROCK ISLAND LD15    15.0   16.0   18.0 :  14    6    6    6   <5   <5
ILL. CITY LD16      15.0   16.0   18.0 :  10    6    6    6   <5   <5
MUSCATINE           16.0   18.0   20.0 :  18    6    6    6   <5   <5
NEW BOSTON LD17     15.0   16.5   18.5 :  18    6    6    6   <5   <5
KEITHSBURG          14.0   15.5   17.0 :  17   10   10   <5   <5   <5
GLADSTONE LD18      10.0   12.0   14.0 :  17   10    6    6   <5   <5
BURLINGTON          15.0   16.5   18.0 :  15   10    6    7   <5   <5
KEOKUK LD19         16.0   17.5   19.0 :   6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
GREGORY LANDING     15.0   18.0   25.0 :  15    7    6    7   <5   <5
:MAQUOKETA RIVER
MANCHESTER HWY 20   14.0   17.0   20.0 :  14   10    6   <5   <5   <5
MAQUOKETA           24.0   26.0   28.5 :  12    7   10   <5    7   <5
:WAPSIPINICON RIVER
INDEPENDENCE        12.0   13.0   15.0 :   9    6    6    6   <5   <5
ANAMOSA SHAW RD     14.0   15.5   19.0 :  12   13   10   10   <5    6
DE WITT             11.0   11.5   12.5 :  32   29   28   24   17   16
:CEDAR RIVER
VINTON              15.0   18.0   19.0 :  10   12   <5   <5   <5   <5
CEDAR RAPIDS        12.0   14.0   16.0 :  12   13   10    9   <5   <5
CONESVILLE          13.0   15.0   16.5 :  32   26   12   12   <5   <5
:IOWA RIVER
MARENGO             14.0   15.5   18.5 :  42   27   28   21   <5   <5
IOWA CITY           22.0   23.0   25.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
LONE TREE           15.0   16.5   18.0 :  20   13   12    9   <5    7
COLUMBUS JCT        19.0   22.0   23.0 :  26   21    9    7    7   <5
WAPELLO             20.0   22.0   25.0 :  26   23   20   16    6   <5
:ENGLISH RIVER
KALONA              14.0   16.0   18.0 :  29   27   21   16   18   12
:NORTH SKUNK RIVER
SIGOURNEY           16.0   18.0   21.0 :  28   27   21   18   10   10
:SKUNK RIVER
AUGUSTA             15.0   17.0   20.0 :  20   16   12   12    6    9
:DES MOINES RIVER
KEOSAUQUA           22.0   25.0   27.0 :   7    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
ST FRANCISVILLE     18.0   22.0   25.0 :  25   16    7    7   <5   <5
:PECATONICA RIVER
FREEPORT            13.0   14.0   16.0 :  15   16   14   13   <5   <5
:ROCK RIVER
COMO                10.0   11.0   12.0 :   9    6    7   <5    6   <5
JOSLIN              12.0   14.0   16.5 :  18   13    9    7    7   <5
MOLINE              12.0   13.0   14.0 :  18   15   14   10    7    9
:GREEN RIVER
GENESEO             15.0   16.5   18.0 :  10    7    7    6    6    6
:LA MOINE RIVER
COLMAR              20.0   22.0   24.0 :  35   26   18   15   15   12
:ILLINOIS RIVER
LA SALLE            20.0   27.0   31.0 :  29   18    7    6   <5   <5
HENRY               23.0   24.0   31.0 :  20    9   14    7   <5   <5
:FOX RIVER
WAYLAND             15.0   18.0   20.0 :  17   15    7    6    7   <5


LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                              CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DUBUQUE LD11          7.5    7.5    7.6    9.2   11.8   15.1   17.9
DUBUQUE               9.8    9.8    9.9   11.2   13.4   16.7   19.5
BELLEVUE LD12         8.5    8.6    8.6    9.9   12.4   15.3   18.0
FULTON LD13           8.3    8.4    8.4    9.7   12.6   15.8   18.0
CAMANCHE             10.9   10.9   10.9   11.8   13.7   16.4   18.8
LECLAIRE LD14         6.6    6.6    6.7    7.4    9.1   10.8   12.4
ROCK ISLAND LD15      9.1    9.1    9.1   10.3   13.2   15.8   17.7
ILL. CITY LD16        7.7    7.7    7.7    8.9   12.7   15.2   17.7
MUSCATINE             9.4    9.4    9.5   10.7   14.2   17.0   19.6
NEW BOSTON LD17       9.3    9.3    9.3   10.5   14.0   16.2   18.9
KEITHSBURG           10.0   10.0   10.0   10.7   13.3   15.6   17.3
GLADSTONE LD18        5.8    5.8    5.8    6.2    9.3   11.6   13.8
BURLINGTON           11.3   11.3   11.3   11.7   14.2   16.2   18.0
KEOKUK LD19           8.0    8.0    8.0    8.4   11.0   14.3   16.4
GREGORY LANDING      10.7   10.7   10.7   11.7   13.5   16.7   19.3
:MAQUOKETA RIVER
MANCHESTER HWY 20     3.7    3.8    4.6    6.2    8.3   15.6   17.9
MAQUOKETA            11.8   11.9   13.1   14.9   20.7   27.8   31.0
:WAPSIPINICON RIVER
INDEPENDENCE          4.9    5.2    5.6    6.3    7.5   11.2   14.9
ANAMOSA SHAW RD       5.6    6.0    6.6    8.2   11.3   16.2   19.1
DE WITT               6.3    6.4    7.2    9.3   11.7   12.9   13.1
:CEDAR RIVER
VINTON                4.6    4.6    6.2    8.3   12.0   16.5   17.8
CEDAR RAPIDS          4.8    4.8    5.7    6.6    9.5   14.7   17.0
CONESVILLE            7.5    7.6    8.6   11.3   13.8   15.5   16.2
:IOWA RIVER
MARENGO               9.0    9.2   10.7   13.3   15.7   18.1   18.5
IOWA CITY            16.0   16.0   16.0   16.1   16.4   17.4   19.0
LONE TREE            10.2   10.2   10.2   11.4   14.3   17.1   18.0
COLUMBUS JCT         13.2   13.2   13.6   16.2   19.6   22.2   23.3
WAPELLO              14.5   14.5   15.0   17.8   21.5   24.3   25.3
:ENGLISH RIVER
KALONA                4.5    5.0    6.8    9.6   15.0   19.5   20.9
:NORTH SKUNK RIVER
SIGOURNEY             5.8    6.8    9.7   12.1   17.5   23.2   24.6
:SKUNK RIVER
AUGUSTA               4.6    4.7    5.9    8.0   13.4   19.0   23.2
:DES MOINES RIVER
KEOSAUQUA            15.5   15.5   15.8   16.6   18.7   21.2   23.1
ST FRANCISVILLE      13.7   13.7   14.3   15.2   18.2   21.1   23.7
:PECATONICA RIVER
FREEPORT              4.8    5.0    5.9    7.4   11.3   15.1   16.0
:ROCK RIVER
COMO                  4.6    4.6    4.6    4.9    6.4   10.2   12.8
JOSLIN                7.4    7.4    7.4    8.1   10.6   14.4   19.2
MOLINE                9.2    9.2    9.2    9.7   11.3   13.6   17.3
:GREEN RIVER
GENESEO               4.0    4.3    4.8    6.9    9.2   15.8   22.2
:LA MOINE RIVER
COLMAR                4.5    5.3    8.7   12.8   21.3   25.0   25.7
:ILLINOIS RIVER
LA SALLE             11.9   12.2   12.7   15.6   22.5   25.5   31.0
HENRY                15.2   15.3   15.7   16.7   21.2   24.7   27.5
:FOX RIVER
WAYLAND               2.3    2.9    4.4    6.0   13.6   17.2   20.6

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

                            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
                                 AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
                          VALID  PERIOD: 7/28/2014 - 10/26/2014
LOCATION              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DUBUQUE LD11          6.0    5.7    5.0    4.8    4.5    4.4    4.3
DUBUQUE               8.4    8.3    7.9    7.8    7.5    7.5    7.4
BELLEVUE LD12         6.1    5.8    4.9    4.5    4.1    3.9    3.9
FULTON LD13           5.8    5.5    4.9    4.7    4.5    4.4    4.4
CAMANCHE              9.5    9.4    9.1    9.0    8.9    8.8    8.8
LECLAIRE LD14         5.2    5.1    4.8    4.7    4.5    4.5    4.5
ROCK ISLAND LD15      6.2    5.9    5.2    4.9    4.5    4.3    4.2
ILL. CITY LD16        5.0    4.7    4.2    3.9    3.6    3.5    3.4
MUSCATINE             7.0    6.7    6.4    6.2    6.1    5.9    5.9
NEW BOSTON LD17       5.7    5.2    4.3    4.0    3.6    3.4    3.4
KEITHSBURG            7.1    6.8    6.1    5.9    5.6    5.5    5.5
GLADSTONE LD18        2.7    2.4    1.8    1.5    1.2    1.1    1.1
BURLINGTON            8.8    8.5    8.2    8.0    7.7    7.6    7.6
KEOKUK LD19           5.2    4.8    3.7    3.2    2.4    2.3    2.3
GREGORY LANDING       7.3    6.8    6.5    6.4    6.2    6.2    6.2
:MAQUOKETA RIVER
MANCHESTER HWY 20     3.5    3.5    3.4    3.4    3.4    3.3    3.3
MAQUOKETA            11.2   11.1   10.9   10.5   10.4   10.3   10.3
:WAPSIPINICON RIVER
INDEPENDENCE          4.7    4.7    4.6    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.4
ANAMOSA SHAW RD       5.2    5.2    5.0    5.0    4.9    4.9    4.8
DE WITT               5.7    5.4    5.3    5.1    5.0    5.0    4.9
:CEDAR RIVER
VINTON                3.4    3.3    3.2    2.8    2.6    2.5    2.5
CEDAR RAPIDS          4.2    4.2    4.1    4.0    3.9    3.8    3.8
CONESVILLE            6.5    6.4    6.2    6.0    5.8    5.6    5.6
:IOWA RIVER
MARENGO               8.0    7.7    7.2    7.0    6.8    6.6    6.6
IOWA CITY            10.7   10.7   10.4    9.9    9.7    9.4    9.4
LONE TREE             5.6    5.6    5.2    4.7    4.3    4.0    3.9
COLUMBUS JCT         11.0   10.3   10.1    9.7    9.5    9.2    9.2
WAPELLO              12.4   11.7   11.5   11.1   10.8   10.6   10.5
:ENGLISH RIVER
KALONA                4.0    3.7    3.5    3.4    3.3    3.3    3.2
:NORTH SKUNK RIVER
SIGOURNEY             5.2    4.8    4.4    4.1    4.1    4.0    4.0
:SKUNK RIVER
AUGUSTA               3.8    3.5    3.1    2.8    2.7    2.6    2.6
:DES MOINES RIVER
KEOSAUQUA            12.2   11.3   10.8    9.8    9.7    9.7    9.7
ST FRANCISVILLE       8.9    7.7    7.1    5.6    5.5    5.4    5.4
:PECATONICA RIVER
FREEPORT              3.8    3.5    3.1    2.9    2.8    2.8    2.7
:ROCK RIVER
COMO                  3.9    3.4    3.2    3.1    2.9    2.9    2.9
JOSLIN                5.9    5.1    4.7    4.5    4.2    4.1    4.1
MOLINE                8.6    8.2    8.0    7.9    7.8    7.8    7.8
:GREEN RIVER
GENESEO               3.7    3.5    3.3    3.1    3.0    3.0    2.9
:LA MOINE RIVER
COLMAR                2.9    2.8    2.6    2.3    1.9    1.9    1.9
:ILLINOIS RIVER
LA SALLE             11.3   11.0   10.8   10.7   10.7   10.6   10.6
HENRY                14.8   14.6   14.4   14.3   14.2   14.1   14.1
:FOX RIVER
WAYLAND               1.7    1.6    1.6    1.5    1.4    1.4    1.4


THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.

ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT
ON THE INTERNET AT

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/QUADCITIES

THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN LATE AUGUST.

$$






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