Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6
000
FGUS73 KEAX 152050
ESFEAX
MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095-
101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-160000-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
250 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024

...2024 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This Spring Flood Outlook is for the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill
Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which includes the Kansas River,
Missouri River, and their tributaries, in northeast Kansas and
northern Missouri.

...Below normal flood potential through mid-May along the Missouri
River from the Iowa border through Boonville...

...Tributaries which typically flood during the spring months will
likely experience minor to moderate flooding...

Outlook:

Through early May, the probability of flooding along the Missouri
River from the Iowa border to Boonville is roughly 15 to 30 percent
lower than normal.

Spring minor flood probability values along the Missouri River from
the Iowa border downstream to St. Joseph, Missouri range from 20 to
30 percent. The stretch of the river from Leavenworth, Kansas
through Kansas City has a 10 to 15 percent chance of minor flooding
through mid-May. Further downstream, Napoleon through Boonville show
probabilities of exceeding flood stage ranging from 50 to 60 percent.

Minor flooding is likely across tributary creeks and rivers which
typically experience flooding each spring. In addition, the
following basins have greater than or equal to 50 percent
probability of reaching moderate flood category: Upper Stranger,
Crooked, Wakenda, Grand near Sumner, Blackwater, Lamine, Petite
Saline, and Big. All of these basins frequently experience moderate
flooding each spring.

Recent Conditions:

The majority of the Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA received below
normal precipitation the past 30 days. Far northwest Missouri
received the least amount of precipitation where values were
generally below 50 percent of normal. The wettest region was found
along and west of a line from Atchison to Olathe, Kansas to Butler,
Missouri. Precipitation totals ranged from 125 to 175 percent of
normal within this area.

During the past 90 days, the vast majority of the local region
received above normal precipitation. Over half of the Kansas
City/Pleasant Hill HSA received in excess of 150 percent of normal
precipitation with areas in the vicinity of Atchison, Leavenworth,
and St. Joseph reporting in excess of 200 percent of normal.

30-day mean temperature values ranged from the lower 30s along Iowa
border to the upper 30s across the Kansas City metro area. These
values were generally 4 to 6 degrees above normal. For the past 90-
Day period, mean temperatures were also above normal with values
ranging 2 to 5 degrees warmer than average.

Present Conditions:

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates around 40 percent of the
Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA is experiencing at least abnormally
dry conditions. In addition, around 6 percent of the HSA is affected
by moderate drought. Looking at the entire Missouri Basin, around 50
percent of the basin is experiencing at least abnormally dry
conditions with roughly 20 percent reporting at least moderate
drought, and 5 percent severe drought.

No snow cover is present across the local region. In addition, much
below normal snowpack is common across the northern Plains and
mountainous areas of the upper Missouri Basin.

7-Day streamflow values across the local region were generally near
normal. However, parts of the Marias Des Cygne River observed much
above normal streamflow conditions.

Future Conditions:

7-Day forecast precipitation amounts are expected to range from only
several hundredths across northeast Kansas and far northwest
Missouri, to a quarter inch across central Missouri.

The outlook for the 8 to 14 day period indicates a pattern highly
favored for above normal temperatures. Normal precipitation amounts
are anticipated.

Looking at the outlook period through May. There is no clear signal
regarding temperature for the local area. The greatest likelihood of
above normal temperatures will be across the northern third of the
United States. The precipitation outlook slightly favors above
normal amounts across the NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill HSA.

The next outlook will be issued on Thursday, February 29th.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/17/2024  - 05/17/2024

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Delaware River
Muscotah            27.0   28.0   36.0 :  24   28   20   23   <5   <5
:Stranger Creek
Easton              17.0   18.0   23.0 :  80   87   66   68    6    6
Tonganoxie          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  49   57   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Kansas River
De Soto             26.0   33.0   36.0 :   5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Turner Bridge KCK   41.0   47.5   54.0 :   5   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
23rd Street KCK     33.0   54.0   55.0 :  13   23   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Missouri River
St Joseph           17.0   21.0   27.0 :  34   63   14   36    5   11
Atchison            22.0   27.0   30.0 :  22   56    9   18    5   14
Leavenworth         20.0   24.0   30.0 :  15   40    8   18   <5    9
Parkville           25.0   28.0   35.0 :  13   29    6   17   <5    8
Kansas City         32.0   35.0   49.0 :   9   14    6   11   <5   <5
Napoleon            17.0   25.0   30.0 :  51   70   11   23    6   10
Waverly             20.0   29.0   31.0 :  54   70    9   18    6   11
Miami               18.0   28.0   29.0 :  57   78    8   16    6   12
Glasgow             25.0   27.0   32.0 :  51   67   44   63   11   24
Boonville           21.0   30.0   34.0 :  54   70   10   13   <5    5
:Tarkio River
Fairfax             17.0   18.0   25.0 :  51   77   49   73   17   48
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti   23.0   28.0   35.0 :   7   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
:102 River
Maryville           18.0   23.0   28.0 :  17   44    8   11   <5   <5
Rosendale           18.0   18.1   23.0 :  25   48   24   47   <5    5
:Platte River
Agency              20.0   25.0   30.0 :  74   82   44   59    5    5
:Little Platte River
Smithville          27.0   30.5   35.0 :  <5    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Platte River
Sharps Station      26.0   29.0   33.0 :  60   66   39   53   17   25
Platte City         20.0   25.0   29.0 :  64   76   27   38   11   23
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev   35.0   39.0   48.0 :  23   23    7    8   <5   <5
Bannister Road Ka   34.0   40.0   42.0 :  11   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
71 Highway Kansas   27.0   36.0   38.0 :  15   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
63rd Street Kansa   26.0   33.0   37.0 :  16   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
Colorado Avenue K   31.0   36.0   37.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Stadium Drive Kan   33.0   39.0   43.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
17th Street Kansa   33.0   36.0   38.0 :   6    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
12th Street Kansa   30.0   35.0   40.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Little Blue River
Lake City           18.0   25.0   27.0 :  39   35   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Crooked River
Richmond            20.0   21.0   29.0 :  66   76   61   73   <5   <5
:Wakenda Creek
Carrollton          16.0   19.0   21.0 :  63   67   51   55   14   20
:Blackwater River
Valley City         22.0   25.0   31.0 :  82   88   76   82   26   29
Blue Lick           24.0   29.0   37.0 :  84   95   56   61    9    9
:Lamine River
Otterville          15.0   18.0   26.0 :  65   68   51   53    9   11
:Moniteau Creek
Fayette             16.0   21.0   25.0 :  75   76   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Petite Saline Creek
Boonville           16.0   19.5   26.0 :  66   78   51   63   <5   <5
:Thompson River
Trenton             27.0   31.0   34.0 :  26   42   10   10   <5   <5
:Grand River
Pattonsburg         25.0   30.0   32.0 :  37   56   28   45   21   33
Gallatin            26.0   33.0   39.0 :  43   55    8   18   <5    5
Chillicothe         24.0   28.0   35.0 :  64   73   46   58   23   31
Sumner              26.0   28.0   40.0 :  81   84   79   80    6    5
Brunswick           19.0   27.0   33.0 :  59   73   14   26    5    6
:Chariton River
Novinger            20.0   23.0   26.0 :  26   34   18   21    9   10
Prairie Hill        15.0   19.0   21.0 :  63   73   23   31   10   10
:South Grand River
Urich               24.0   26.0   33.0 :  65   59   39   37   <5   <5
:Big Creek
Blairstown          20.0   23.0   36.0 :  95   94   82   74   <5   <5
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie          28.0   45.0   48.0 :  44   48   <5   <5   <5   <5
La Cygne            25.0   30.0   36.0 :  58   54   38   39   <5   <5
Trading Post        27.0   29.0   40.0 :  47   44   39   40   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/17/2024  - 05/17/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah              5.6    8.0   13.6   20.4   26.7   28.7   29.4
:Stranger Creek
Easton                9.4   14.4   17.5   19.6   21.0   22.0   23.7
Tonganoxie            9.5   13.2   17.2   23.1   25.3   25.9   27.1
:Kansas River
De Soto               8.3    8.6   10.6   13.4   19.1   21.6   26.9
Turner Bridge KCK    10.2   11.4   15.3   20.2   27.5   33.8   42.4
23rd Street KCK      15.0   15.7   18.5   22.3   28.7   34.6   43.5
:Missouri River
St Joseph             6.9    8.0   11.2   15.4   18.2   23.3   27.2
Atchison              9.1   10.7   15.0   19.3   21.9   26.8   29.9
Leavenworth           4.0    5.3    9.3   14.6   18.2   23.5   28.2
Parkville            10.0   10.9   15.4   18.6   21.2   25.9   31.4
Kansas City          12.7   13.3   17.6   20.3   26.0   30.9   38.5
Napoleon              9.9   10.4   14.6   17.2   21.5   25.3   31.7
Waverly              13.7   14.3   18.1   21.1   24.4   28.1   31.3
Miami                10.8   11.8   16.9   20.3   24.0   27.4   29.8
Glasgow              16.4   18.4   21.9   25.7   29.3   32.8   37.7
Boonville            12.5   14.9   17.9   22.3   26.4   29.8   32.7
:Tarkio River
Fairfax               7.0    8.6   11.9   17.7   24.5   25.6   28.6
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti     7.2    9.2   10.1   11.6   15.7   18.4   25.0
:102 River
Maryville             9.1   10.9   12.7   14.5   16.7   20.6   25.2
Rosendale             7.0   10.2   12.9   15.9   18.0   21.0   22.8
:Platte River
Agency               12.6   16.1   19.8   24.7   26.7   28.1   29.8
:Little Platte River
Smithville           14.1   14.5   14.9   15.9   18.8   20.9   26.5
:Platte River
Sharps Station       14.9   19.9   22.1   27.3   31.5   33.6   35.2
Platte City          12.3   17.0   18.6   22.2   25.6   29.5   31.3
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev    26.8   27.4   29.2   31.2   34.3   38.5   39.4
Bannister Road Ka     7.8   12.8   15.3   20.2   28.2   35.3   36.1
71 Highway Kansas     7.0   12.5   15.1   18.4   24.1   30.6   31.6
63rd Street Kansa    10.4   14.1   15.8   18.8   23.3   29.9   31.3
Colorado Avenue K     9.9   13.6   15.3   17.8   21.3   27.3   28.7
Stadium Drive Kan     9.1   13.5   15.6   19.3   23.5   30.1   31.9
17th Street Kansa    13.0   17.5   19.0   21.9   26.2   31.7   33.3
12th Street Kansa     9.1   12.6   14.1   16.6   20.9   27.0   28.5
:Little Blue River
Lake City             5.8    7.1    8.5   16.4   19.6   22.9   23.8
:Crooked River
Richmond              9.9   14.2   18.9   21.9   24.5   26.6   27.1
:Thompson River
Trenton              14.8   15.4   19.6   22.7   27.1   31.0   32.4
:Grand River
Pattonsburg           4.7    6.0   12.5   21.3   31.0   34.0   41.6
Gallatin              6.8    7.4   15.4   24.4   30.9   32.7   37.2
Chillicothe          10.5   11.6   18.3   26.6   34.2   38.9   40.5
Sumner               16.4   18.8   30.6   33.4   36.1   38.1   40.4
Brunswick            11.7   13.4   17.4   21.1   25.3   27.8   34.0
:Chariton River
Novinger              2.6    5.5   10.7   16.2   20.1   25.8   27.8
Prairie Hill          5.6    8.9   14.0   16.3   18.6   21.2   23.3
:South Grand River
Urich                14.5   17.2   21.7   25.1   27.5   28.9   29.8
:Big Creek
Blairstown           19.5   21.9   23.3   24.3   26.0   27.0   27.1
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie           16.8   17.9   21.8   26.8   33.1   36.6   37.7
La Cygne              9.7   13.0   20.3   29.1   32.6   33.5   33.9
Trading Post         12.8   15.7   19.7   26.1   33.2   37.2   38.2

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/17/2024  - 05/17/2024
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Delaware River
Muscotah              2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
:Stranger Creek
Easton                2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    2.1    1.5
Tonganoxie            2.0    2.0    2.0    1.9    1.7    1.6    1.5
:Kansas River
De Soto               4.1    4.1    4.1    4.0    3.8    3.7    3.7
:Missouri River
St Joseph             3.2    3.1    3.0    2.7    2.3    2.0    1.4
Atchison              4.8    4.8    4.7    4.3    4.0    3.7    3.1
Parkville             5.9    5.9    5.7    5.3    5.1    4.9    4.4
Kansas City           6.3    6.2    6.1    5.6    5.4    5.2    4.8
Napoleon              3.7    3.6    3.5    3.1    2.8    2.6    2.2
Waverly               7.9    7.8    7.6    7.2    7.0    6.8    6.5
Miami                 4.3    4.1    3.9    3.5    3.2    3.0    2.8
Glasgow               8.5    8.2    8.0    7.5    7.2    6.9    6.7
Boonville             4.5    4.1    4.0    3.6    3.1    2.9    2.7
:Tarkio River
Fairfax               5.5    5.5    5.5    5.4    5.4    5.3    5.3
:Nodaway River
Burlington Juncti     4.2    4.2    4.1    4.0    3.8    3.8    3.7
:102 River
Maryville             7.0    7.0    7.0    7.0    6.9    6.9    6.9
Rosendale             3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.0    3.0    3.0
:Platte River
Agency                6.7    6.7    6.6    6.6    6.5    6.5    6.5
:Little Platte River
Smithville           12.2   12.2   12.2   12.1   12.1   12.1   12.1
:Platte River
Sharps Station        4.9    4.8    4.8    4.7    4.6    4.6    4.6
Platte City           0.8    0.7    0.5    0.3    0.1    0.0    0.0
:Blue River
Blue Ridge Boulev    25.5   25.5   25.4   25.4   25.4   25.4   25.4
Bannister Road Ka     4.6    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5    4.5
71 Highway Kansas     2.3    2.3    2.3    2.2    2.2    2.2    2.2
63rd Street Kansa     5.4    5.3    5.1    5.0    5.0    4.9    4.9
Colorado Avenue K     5.2    5.1    4.8    4.6    4.5    4.4    4.4
Stadium Drive Kan     5.9    5.9    5.9    5.8    5.8    5.8    5.8
17th Street Kansa     7.4    7.3    7.2    7.2    7.1    7.1    7.1
12th Street Kansa     2.8    2.8    2.7    2.7    2.6    2.6    2.6
:Little Blue River
Lake City             4.8    4.7    4.7    4.6    4.6    4.5    4.5
:Crooked River
Richmond              6.0    6.0    5.9    5.7    5.5    5.4    5.3
:Thompson River
Trenton              10.2   10.2    9.9    8.9    8.0    8.0    8.0
:Grand River
Pattonsburg           2.7    2.6    2.2    1.6    1.0    1.0    1.0
Gallatin              3.7    3.5    3.2    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
Chillicothe           5.1    4.7    4.4    4.1    3.4    3.2    3.1
Sumner                7.8    7.8    7.5    6.8    6.5    6.2    6.2
:Chariton River
Novinger              0.5    0.5    0.3    0.2    0.1    0.0    0.0
Prairie Hill          2.7    2.6    2.0    1.6    1.3    1.2    1.2
:South Grand River
Urich                 4.7    4.6    3.4    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
:Big Creek
Blairstown            8.4    8.3    7.3    4.0    4.0    4.0    4.0
:Marais Des Cygnes River
Osawatomie           12.0   12.0   12.0   12.0   12.0   12.0   12.0
La Cygne              5.4    5.3    5.2    4.9    4.6    4.6    4.5
Trading Post          5.6    5.3    5.1    4.8    4.5    4.4    4.2

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/eax for more weather and water
information.

$$

SAW


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.