Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 160400
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1000 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 959 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024
...High Wind Warning/Advisory and Red Flag Warning have all
expired...
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Winds will be on the decrease this evening and will be much
lighter but still a little breezy each afternoon. Temperatures
will be slightly cooler for Tuesday before warming back up into
the 80s to near 90 for the lowlands by Thursday. A back door cold
front could bring a quick break from the heat going into Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024
The main impactful weather over the next week looks to be ending
in the first 6 hours of the short term. Upper low moving through
southern CO will push weak cold front through by early this
evening and upper trough by 06Z. This will allow winds to
gradually decrease through the overnight hours. Will just leave
highlights as is for now. Expect some wind to continue into the
morning hours, especially eastern slopes and keep lows around 50,
but areas west of the Rio Grande could drop into the 30s with some
dry air remaining in place.
Temperatures Tuesday will cool down about 3-6 degrees and winds
will decrease to 5-15 mph as main upper low pushes into the
Midwest and gradient relaxes over the area. Generally zonal flow
for the remainder of the work week will warm temperatures back
above normal with 80s over the lowlands common, even a 90 possible
around KELP and lower Rio Grande Valley around Thursday. Very dry
air remains in place with dew points in the single digits and
teens, so with light winds, overnight lows will be able to drop
nicely.
A weak upper trough moves through Saturday with an upper high
building into the Front Range. This is where models do differ as
the EC is pushing a back door into our NE zones during the day Sat
and then through area Sat night. GFS has this front remaining east
of the area Sat and then pushing to about the Divide overnight.
The upper air pattern, time of the year and support from ensembles
make me lean more toward the GFS/GEFS solution. This also seems
more in line with the NBM temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Generally VFR with SKC-SCT250. Surface winds west 25-30G45 knots
until around 03Z, then diminishing to west/northwest 12-17G30
knots. After 06Z winds diminishing further to west/northwest 7-10
knots. From Deming- Mescalero southeast...widespread 5SM BLDU
with occasional 1-2SM BLDU from El Paso east. Most BLDU ending by
around 02Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Winds will be on the decrease this evening and over the upcoming
week, will be occasionally low end breezy, but not threatening to
reach critical speeds. RH`s however, will remain low through the
week with westerly winds keeping them in the single digits for the
lowlands and some occasional teens in the mountains. Temperatures
will be slightly cooler Tuesday, but warm back up to about 5-10
degrees above normal by the end of the week. Vent rates the next
couple of days will be Very Good.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 53 81 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 46 76 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 44 81 48 87 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 43 78 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 33 54 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 45 79 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 39 70 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 39 79 44 85 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 38 76 44 82 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 49 79 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 45 81 44 87 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 44 81 48 87 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 44 73 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 45 81 50 87 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 44 78 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 49 78 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 39 79 42 83 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 41 81 45 86 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 44 79 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 42 77 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 39 68 42 76 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 37 66 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 34 65 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 38 73 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 38 79 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 38 79 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 29 72 35 77 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 34 74 40 79 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 35 77 41 82 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 32 73 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 37 75 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 39 77 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 40 77 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 38 79 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 39 74 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner