975
FNUS74 KEPZ 131957
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Slaughter Mesa RX, Chiminea Unit...US Forest Service
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
157 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 MDT on May 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Cumulus build-ups and instability showers will remain possible for
the next few hours, largely dissipating after sunset. Winds will
remain light, likely becoming drainage oriented overnight.
Tomorrow is expected to feature weather similar today with more
cumulus build-ups in the afternoon with a slight chance for
showers. Any precipitation will be light. Winds will remain light
as well, topping out less than 10 MPH from the northwest to west.
Venting will be very good. Although lightning cannot be entirely
ruled out, the threat is very low and is generally not expected.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly Cloudy (50-60 percent). Isolated to widely
                scattered showers late this afternoon and early evening.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......12600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (117900 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........63     53
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10
LAL.............1      1
Temp............65     65
RH..............21     20
20 ft wind......N 6    N 8
20 ft wind gust.12     14
Mix hgt (ft)....12600  12600
Transport wind..N 10   N 10
Haines index....5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..118    118
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   VYGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (20-30 percent). A slight chance
    for a shower in the early evening.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 7 mph shifting to the
                    west around 5 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight, then shifting to the northwest
                    around 6 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......10700 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (85500 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........55     55     45     33     33     7
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............62     56     51     49     47     46
RH..............24     30     37     40     43     45
20 ft wind......NW 7   NW 7   SW 5   W 5    W 5    NW 6
20 ft wind gust.12     12     9      9      9      10
Mix hgt (ft)....10700  10700  700    700    500    500
Transport wind..N 9    N 9    NW 8   NW 8   NW 10  NW 10
Haines index....5      5      4      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..86     86     4      4      5      5
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming mostly
                    cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 67.
Min humidity........21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......11400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 10 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 12 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (24900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (109800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........12        31        75        67
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      S CHC
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         10        20
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............45        56        64        65
RH..............45        30        21        24
20 FT wind......NW 6G10   NW 7G10   NW 7G14   W 9G15
Mix hgt (ft)....3600      3600      11400     10000
Transport wind..NW 10     NW 10     W 9       SW 12
Haines index....4         4         5         4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..25        25        95        110
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      GOOD      VYGD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
Northwest winds around 7 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds around 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
West winds around 9 mph.

$$
Forecaster...BROWN
Requested by...Francesca Chavez
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414008.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL francesca.chavez@usda.gov