160
FXUS64 KEWX 151116
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
616 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Clear skies over South Central Texas will allow for some mild to
cool morning lows across the area. High level clouds will increase
over the area today along with some patchy low level cumulus.
Afternoon temperatures will range from the upper 80s in the far
northeast portion of the CWA and over the Hill Country to the upper
90s along the Rio Grande. Dry conditions are expected today with the
one exception in the far west where a few storms may form over the
higher terrain in Mexico in the afternoon and cross the Rio Grande.
Confidence if thunderstorms make it into our western reaches is
still uncertain given only moderate mid level flow, but modest
instability and bulk shear around 50 knots would support severe
thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and large hail the main
threats if they do. SPC has highlighted this potential with a level
1 of 5 risk for severe storms over the Rio Grande Plains and
southern Edwards Plateau.

Mainly dry conditions are expected overnight with continued
southerly flow. Lows will be warmer than those of this morning as
stratus is expected to develop Thursday morning over the majority of
the area.

An upper trough will be located over the far southwestern CONUS
Thursday morning, expected to move east towards the Southern and
Central Plains during the day. At the surface, a few boundaries will
exist near or over the area with a dryline to the far west, a weak
cold front to the north and a warm front expected to move north
towards South Central Texas on Thursday. Precipitation chances begin
as early as Thursday morning across much of the area with mainly
isolated or scattered shower activity possible during that time.
Thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon as
temperatures rise with initiation most likely over Hill Country,
northern I-35 corridor or Coastal Plains north of I-10 and north of
the warm front. Any storms could become supercellular with large
hail and damaging wind the main threats. SPC continues the level 2
of 5 risk generally north of I-10 with a level 1 of 5 risk almost
everywhere else except along the Rio Grande. Additionally, there is
still the potential for heavy rainfall as this system moves through
with a level 2 of 4 for excessive rain also north of I-10. Given the
surface features, except the bulk of any activity to be over the
northeastern portion of the CWA and areas northward. South of this,
it is possible little will be seen in the way of thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Convection will continue Thursday evening over the eastern half of
the CWA and move off to the east by around midnight. A cold front
will move through the region Friday, but after Thursday`s convection
there will only be enough moisture for more rain along and southeast
of the I-35 Corridor during the morning and afternoon. And even in
this area chances will be low. Friday night an upper level ridge will
begin moving in from the west starting an extended dry period. This
ridge will slowly move across TX over the weekend. As it does
temperatures will warm. Highs will reach the 90s to 105 by Saturday
and remain there through the end of the period. Record highs may be
possible along the Rio Grande.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected though tonight. South to southeast wind
at DRT will increase this morning and remain elevated through the
period with gusts to 25 to 30 are possible through this evening. An
isolated thunderstorm may form west of DRT and move east over the
terminal between 23-03Z. Southeasterly wind at I-35 sites will
become breezy in the afternoon and evening. Low MVFR to IFR ceilings
will build in over the area early Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              91  69  82  70 /   0  10  70  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  91  67  83  69 /   0  10  60  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     92  68  86  71 /   0  10  60  20
Burnet Muni Airport            89  67  78  68 /   0  10  70  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  74 100  72 /  20  20  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  67  79  68 /   0  10  80  30
Hondo Muni Airport             94  70  89  69 /   0  10  40  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        91  67  84  70 /   0  10  60  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  67  83  73 /   0  10  70  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  71  86  71 /   0  10  60  20
Stinson Muni Airport           94  70  88  72 /   0  10  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...05
Aviation...27