299
FXUS63 KFGF 080414
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1114 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of weak thunderstorms will continue north this afternoon
with the potential for gusty winds to 50 mph and small hail.

- Scattered rain chances return this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Forecast on track, but did update aviation section below.

UPDATE
Issued at 924 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Almost all the shower and storm activity has faded away now.
Cloud cover is still fairly thick, with just a few holes
scattered about. With the recent rain, any clear spot where the
wind becomes light could see some patchy fog. At the moment,
wind speeds should stay up just enough and it should remain
mostly cloudy.

UPDATE
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Line of showers and embedded thunder continues to move north
this evening. The line currently is situated over Towner county
through northern Beltrami county. Over the past several hours it
has become unorganized and lost its intensity. SFC vorticity and
instability have started to weaken and will continue to do so as
we progress through the remainder of the evening hours. Isolated
gusts behind the front of 30-35mph will be possible through the
rest of the evening before we loose further daytime heating and
mixing potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Storms continue to fire along the northward moving occluded front
and currently span from the Valley City to Fargo corridor and
southeast to Fergus Falls. These will continue to propagate
north/northwest as the front wraps around the upper low to the
southwest centered over the central ND/SD border. MLCAPE of 400-800
J/kg per latest RAP analysis overlaid upon the ample boundary
vorticity have created sporadic weak mid-level (850 MB) mesos with
this short sub-6km deep convection. Should continue to see a small
hail and gusty wind threat through the afternoon with these as they
move north though the landspout/weak tornado threat seems to be low
as cells struggle to remain discrete and rain into each others
updrafts. Clearing behind the main line may yield enough instability
to see a few more storms form behind this initial line but remain
weaker with more mid level dry air to contend with. Gusty synoptic
30+ mph winds will begin to drop off after sunset as we develop the
evening inversion leaving a pleasant night.

A breakdown of the upper low over the next 2 days will see continued
cloud cover with periodic shower chances through Wednesday as the
low meanders south with weak upper flow to move it along.
Another 0.10 to 0.25" remains possible before this round of rain
ends primarily north of HWY 200. A drier period begins after
this round moves out with eastern ridging forming atop a
developing cutoff low in desert SW arching into the northern
plains by late week. Northerly flow along the eastern edge of
this ridging will see shortwaves rounding the ridging with our
next potential rain maker Friday though not looking at a soaker
with this quick moving clipper type system. Low level ridging
will see relative humidity dropping below 40% each day Thursday-
Sunday for at least a portion of the forecast area. The
strongest surface pressure gradient doesnt move over head until
Friday/Saturday quelling concerns of fire weather though remains
something to monitor.

Chances for precip look to then stem from ridge riding waves late
weekend into early next week Though uncertainty remains high with
timing and amounts. Highs through the period as ridging dominates
will be in the 60s to 70s with average highs in the mid 60s for the
second week of May. Lows in the 40s to low 50s each night for the
week should provide near term relief from any late season frost
threat for gardeners who have already started spring planting or are
looking to start.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1114 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Latest guidance is showing some fog/stratus possible north of
KDVL and around the KBJI to KTVF corridor late tonight into
mid Wednesday morning. Seeing a 600 foot BKN layer at KBJI
already, so that seems to fit. After this ends, there could be a
few showers around late Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday
evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...Godon