586
FXUS64 KFWD 020717
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
149 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation, Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Morning/

A gradually organizing line of thunderstorms with embedded bowing
segments is pushing through the western fringes of our area of
responsibility at the time of writing this discussion, though a
weakening trend has taken shape over the last hour or so. As this
line of storms evolves, our damaging wind threat may increase
through the early morning hours. Our greatest potential for severe
weather will exist west of the I-35 corridor overnight tonight,
although instances of severe weather will be possible into the
morning hours as this line of storms moves through. Our main
concerns with severe weather potential continues to include
damaging winds and flash flooding, with lower potential for large
hail and isolated tornadoes. Despite the rather progressive nature
of this convective system, areas across South and Central Texas
will see continued exacerbation of flooding issues with the
current Flood Watch still set to last through this afternoon.

Much of this activity will have exited our area to the east by
this afternoon. However, this window of quiet weather will be
short-lived as our next round of dry line convection fires off
once again to our west. This activity will also be supported by a
passing shortwave aloft, which will provide more large-scale
ascent. This could very well play out in a similar fashion to
tonight`s activity, with organizing clusters of thunderstorms
pushing in across portions of Central Texas through this evening
into the early morning hours on Friday. Of course the environment
will be supportive of thunderstorms across portions of North Texas
as well, and severe weather will once again be on deck. Large
hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns, with a low-
end tornado threat as well. Continual waves of heavy rainfall will
likely continue the flash flooding concern across Central Texas
as well. To echo our discussions as of late, please continue to
monitor the weather over the next 12 to 24 hours as our active
stretch of mid-spring weather persists in our forecast.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /New/
/Friday through Wednesday/

Friday through Sunday will remain unsettled with multiple
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. The good news
is that the overall severe weather threat will be low. The passage
of an upper trough across the Central Plains Thursday night will
send a weak cold front southward Friday. The front is progged to move
only partially through North Texas before retreating back to the
north Friday afternoon and evening. Lift supplied by the front, in
combination with larger scale lift from the passage of a subtle
shortwave, will result in scattered showers and storms. Our
confidence in the movement of the front is low so we will keep
PoPs in the 20 to 40 percent range both Friday and Friday evening.
There should be a brief lull in precipitation overnight Friday
when the initial shortwave passes to the east and front
temporarily moves north of the Red River. The front will return on
Saturday once another shortwave in the northern branch of the jet
stream pushes through the Central Plains. This secondary push
will be stronger than the first, sending the front deeper into the
CWA. Lift along the front will bring another chance of showers
and thunderstorms, especially late Saturday night into Sunday
morning when a shortwave rotates across the region. Once the
shortwave passes to the east, storms will temporarily end but will
return again on Monday with the approach of the dryline from the
west and yet another shortwave. We will keep PoPs on Monday low
for now since a cap of warm air will likely be in place. Once the
early week shortwave moves to the east, the upper pattern will
become more zonal which should limit convection, but with plenty
of low level moisture in place, any subtle disturbance could
produce a shower or storm.

Temperatures Friday through the weekend will be near seasonal normals
with highs in the lower and middle 80s and lows in the 60s.
Southwesterly winds will return to about the western half of the
forecast areas Tuesday and Wednesday pushing afternoon highs into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR Ceilings and Thunderstorm Potential Overnight.

A line of storms is currently racing across our coverage area to
the west of the D10 TAF sites, with ongoing thunderstorms over
Waco at the time of writing this discussion. These thunderstorms
will push through the TAF sites around the 08-11z timeframe. As
this moves through, expect a brief one to two hour window of
westerly winds that could gust upwards of 35 knots. These will be
short-lived and will quickly return light and southerly once this
activity passes off to our east through Thursday morning.

On top of this, MVFR ceilings will linger through much of the
period with a brief window of clearing and VFR conditions on
Thursday afternoon. There is low end potential for IFR ceilings
across all TAF sites, but current confidence only allows for an
inclusion in the Waco TAF. MVFR ceilings will return across all
TAF sites as we move into late Thursday night. Additional
potential for thunderstorms will also exist through early Friday
morning, but this will be further assessed in the 12z package.

Reeves

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  68  81  69  81 /  50  50  30  30  50
Waco                80  69  81  69  81 /  70  30  30  20  40
Paris               77  65  81  66  79 /  80  50  40  20  50
Denton              81  64  81  66  80 /  40  40  30  30  50
McKinney            80  66  81  67  80 /  50  50  40  30  50
Dallas              82  68  83  69  82 /  60  50  30  20  50
Terrell             80  67  81  67  81 /  60  50  40  20  50
Corsicana           81  69  83  69  82 /  70  40  40  20  40
Temple              81  69  81  69  81 /  60  30  20  20  30
Mineral Wells       84  66  82  66  82 /  30  40  30  30  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ121-122-134-135-
142>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$