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000
FXUS64 KFWD 170833
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
333 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1241 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/
/Through Thursday/

A weak surface front which entered the CWA Tuesday morning has
retreated northwest, and was located near a line from Gainesville
to Goldthwaite late this evening. Dewpoints in the upper 60s and
lower 70s will lead to a mix of patchy fog and low clouds for
areas east of the surface front. Dewpoint depressions have
already dropped to near zero in the far northeast zones, where fog
development will be most likely overnight/Wednesday morning.
Thick high clouds will likely preclude the development of dense
fog, but a few spots may briefly drop below half a mile
visibility. Wednesday morning lows in the 65 to 70 degree range
can be expected east of the front, with lower 60s across the far
western zones behind the front.

The surface boundary will transition into more of a dryline
feature on Wednesday as is becomes quasi-stationary over the Big
Country. Zonal flow aloft and a dryline in April often spells
thunderstorms, and we will need to keep an eye out for isolated
development late Wednesday afternoon. A few convection-allowing
models are indicating possible development near our Colorado
River counties during peak heating Wednesday afternoon. A strong
capping inversion would need to be overcome, and the cap may end
up shutting things down completely. Probabilities of convection
breaking through the cap are high enough to include 20 POPs across
the southwest, but most areas will remain warm and dry with highs
ranging from near 90 in the far west (near the dryline) to around
80 in the eastern-most counties.

Better opportunities for thunderstorms will occur on Thursday as
a shortwave trough swings through the Plains and a cold front
pushes south through the forecast area. The front will be plunging
into a warm and exceptionally unstable airmass with surface based
CAPE forecast to be in the 3000 to 4000 j/kg range at peak
heating. Effective shear around 30 kt when coupled with such high
instability will support supercell development, which would pose
mainly a large hail threat, followed by damaging winds. Weak low
level shear should keep the tornado threat low, but an isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out given the highly unstable environment.
With that said, the better forcing for ascent will be displaced
to the northeast of the CWA, which could keep thunderstorms
isolated in nature and prevent the occurrence widespread severe
weather. As far as timing is concerned, convection would likely
initiate near the I-35 corridor Thursday afternoon, with activity
pushing southeast across the southeastern half of the region late
afternoon through Thursday evening.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Thursday night through Tuesday/

Thunderstorms associated with a cold front on Thursday will end
from north to south through the evening. All storms will move into
Southeast Texas overnight into Friday morning. Clouds will
briefly clear behind the front but will return Friday as moisture
is drawn northward over the shallow frontal layer. A few showers
and storms may develop across parts of Northeast Texas Friday
afternoon due to the passage of a weak shortwave. Storm chances
will increase Friday night into Saturday with increasing large
scale lift associated with an approaching stronger shortwave and
isentropic ascent over the stalled frontal boundary. Off and on
showers and storms are expected Saturday and Saturday night with
all areas receiving beneficial rainfall. Precipitable water values
are not forecast to be overly high (between 1 and 1.5 inches) but
with multiple rounds of showers and storms expected, locally
heavy rainfall and some flooding will be possible. This pattern is
not typically a big severe weather producer but a few strong
storms with some small hail can`t be ruled out. Storm chances will
end Sunday afternoon with increasing subsidence behind the passing
shortwave. Brief ridging aloft will keep Monday and Tuesday rain-
free, but storm chances will likely return around the middle of
next week.

Cooler temperatures are expected Friday through the weekend due
to extensive cloud cover, rain chances and weak cold air advection
behind the cold front. Highs Friday will still be near or just
slightly below seasonal normal but Saturday and Sunday will be
much cooler with highs staying in the 60s for most locations. The
return of the sun and south winds early next week will result in a
warming trend with at or above normal temperatures by Tuesday.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1241 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

MVFR ceilings will spread north through the region overnight,
with cigs occasionally dropping into IFR range during the morning
hours Wednesday. The latest TAFs will include prevailing IFR cigs
at KACT from 10Z-16Z, with TEMPO IFR in the DFW Metroplex from 11Z
to 15Z. Lower vis with patchy fog is possible, but more likely
for areas east of all TAF sites. Conditions will improve to VFR
18-20Z Wednesday. MVFR ceilings will return after 06Z Wednesday
night.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  88  61  72  59 /   5  30  40  10  60
Waco                70  87  64  77  62 /  10  30  30   5  40
Paris               67  84  59  70  54 /   5  30  60  20  60
Denton              68  88  56  70  54 /   5  30  40  10  60
McKinney            69  86  59  71  56 /   5  30  40  10  60
Dallas              71  90  61  73  59 /   5  30  40  10  60
Terrell             68  85  61  74  58 /   5  30  40  10  60
Corsicana           71  87  64  79  63 /   5  20  30   5  40
Temple              69  87  64  78  63 /  10  20  20   5  40
Mineral Wells       68  90  58  70  56 /   5  30  30  10  70

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$