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000
FXUS64 KFWD 220653
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
153 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Early Week Period/

A warm up continues into the mid week, especially late tonight
into Tuesday as low level warm advection draws Gulf moisture
quickly northward. This will be in response to lee cyclogenesis
and a tightening pressure gradient, as a cold front east of this
feature drops southward through the Central Plains tonight and
into the TX/OK Panhandles and Central Oklahoma later on Tuesday.
The current upper ridge will begin dampening and breaking down
thanks a strong shortwave moving  southeast from the Upper
Midwest and into the Mid Mississippi and western Ohio Valleys.
This will aid in the cold front`s southward progression. After
mostly clear night with light winds and temperatures in the 40s,
look for highs this afternoon to warm into the upper 60s to mid
70s. High clouds will continue to stream through and over the
ridge overhead, but should be thin enough to have limited impact
on temperatures.

In addition to the warm up, increasingly gusty southerly winds
and the aforementioned 925mb-850mb warm advection will aid in
bringing back higher humidity levels again by Tuesday. Enjoy the
lower humidity today because surface dew points will quickly surge
into the 50s later tonight across much of the area. The
occasionally gusty southerly surface winds and eventual stratus
surge aided by a nocturnal LLJ will help to keep lows up in the
50s through daybreak Tuesday. Moisture under the elevated mixed
layer appears deep enough that erosion may be delayed until midday
or early afternoon across areas east of I-35 with an impact on
Tuesday`s high temperatures. Highs across the Big Country will
surpass the 80 degree mark, while mid to upper 70s occur further
east thanks to the stubborn morning stratus. Surface dew points in
the upper 50s to mid 60s will have everyone feeling the humidity
with a more sticky feel to the air

Evolving northwest flow aloft late in the day across the Red
River Valley into the Ark-La-Tex will help to draw the cold front
southward across the I-40 corridor in Central Oklahoma Tuesday
afternoon. A mid level impulse arriving over the front during peak
heating should help in a few late day storms across Central and
Southwest Oklahoma. The front is forecast to remain north of the
Red River, keeping any strong to severe storms at bay, along with
a continued strong elevated mixed layer over our forecast area.

05/Marty

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1254 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/

Update:

No major changes with the most recent forecast update, as we are
still looking at another active pattern setting up mid to late
week. Low rain chances return to portions of North Texas late
Tuesday through Thursday, but more widespread shower/storm chances
are expected Friday through the weekend. Most of the activity
Tuesday and Wednesday will remain west/north of our area as
convection develops along a dryline and a cold front. However, a
lingering storm or two may sneak into our western and northern
counties Tuesday night into Wednesday. Precipitation chances will
increase area wide Friday through the weekend as a series of upper
level systems travel across the region. We can`t rule out the
potential for a few strong to severe storms, but details are still
uncertain at this time.

Sanchez

Previous Discussion:
/Monday Night Onward/

Return flow will already be in place Monday night, and will
strengthen on Tuesday as North and Central Texas becomes
positioned between a cold front to the north, dryline to the west,
and surface ridge to the east. The resulting narrow pressure
gradient will increase south winds to 15-25 MPH with occasional
higher gusts by Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a mid level ridge
will strengthen overhead, helping to return temperatures to near-
normal values for the midweek period. The front will stall near
or just north of the Red River, providing as focus for isolated
thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours
both Tuesday and Wednesday. The presence of the ridge will
preclude more widespread convection, and POPs will be limited to
areas generally north of the I-20 corridor (closest to the front
and farthest from the ridge axis).

The front will retreat north on Thursday as a shortwave trough
advances east through the Four Corners region and a lee surface
trough deepens. Any thunderstorms which would affect the region
Thursday afternoon and evening would need to initialize near the
dryline, which should still be located well west of the forecast
area. A strong capping inversion may end up shutting off
convection as it attempts to move east into the region, keeping
any POPs in the slight chance range. Slightly better storm chances
will occur on Friday as the shortwave lifts northeast through the
Plains and the dryline shifts farther east to near Highway 281.
Thunderstorms which fire near the surface boundary would likely
survive the trek across the I-35 corridor Friday evening before
dissipating overnight Friday night. Some of the Friday storms
would likely have a potential to produce large hail, though it is
still a bit too soon to speculate on all of the severe weather
parameter details.

Unsettled weather will continue next weekend as a deeper upper
trough takes shape over the western CONUS, providing additional
chances for thunderstorms across the region. A lead shortwave will
lift northeast through the plains on Saturday, generating another
possible round of dryline-induced convection Saturday afternoon
and evening (similar to Friday). The main trough will eventually
move through the Plains next Sunday into the following Monday,
providing additional storm chances, with activity focused along an
attendant Pacific front.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

No impacts, as the D10 airspace remains VFR with just some
passing cirrus through the upper ridge overhead. A bulk of this
should remain over Central Texas, as calm winds early this morning
become southeast near 10 kts this afternoon.

Southerly winds will increase to between 10 to 15 kts at all
airports after 03z Tuesday, as a strengthening southwesterly flow
of 30-40 kts at 925mb helps to keep temperatures up and the
surface-BL coupled. MVFR cigs will surge northeast after 12z
Tuesday, but this remains just beyond the scope this TAF set.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    56  78  63  80  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
Waco                53  75  62  79  66 /   0   0   5   5   5
Paris               51  74  58  77  63 /   0   0  10  10  10
Denton              53  77  61  79  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
McKinney            54  76  61  79  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
Dallas              56  78  63  80  67 /   0   0  10  10   5
Terrell             52  75  60  79  64 /   0   0  10   5   5
Corsicana           54  75  62  81  66 /   0   0   5   5   5
Temple              53  76  62  81  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       53  81  61  81  66 /   0   5  10  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$