Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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135 FXUS63 KGID 070844 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 344 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs today in the low 70s with a chance (15-25%) for showers this evening across southeastern portions of the area. - Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday. - Highs in the 60s and 70s through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Today and Tonight... Highs today will be in the 70s for most areas, with breezy westerly winds gusting 30-35 mph. The upper level trough that passed through the area on Monday will stall out over the northern Plains, along with the associated surface low. As this low stalls out, it will bring chances for scattered showers over the next few days. The first chance (15-25%) for rain will arrive this evening across southeastern portions of the area. Forecast soundings show a fairly dry layer of air near the surface, indicating that any rain that does make it through the dry air will be light in accumulation. Lows tonight will be in the 40s with light winds. Wednesday and Thursday... The upper level low will begin to move to the southeast on Wednesday as it reconnects with the jetstream. As it does this the surface low will move across the area, bringing a cold front to the area Wednesday night, with winds becoming breezy and northerly on Thursday. Highs on Wednesday and Thursday will be slightly cooler, with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday afternoon (15-25%) across northern portions of the area. Scattered,.off and on shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through Thursday night. While chances are fairly low throughout this time period, the highest and most widespread chances (20-40%) look to be Thursday afternoon. Friday through Monday.. The upper level low will become split on Friday, with part of the low continuing to propagate east and a portion of the low becoming cut off over the Southwest. Despite this cut-off low, broadly northwesterly flow will build aloft this weekend. Highs this weekend will be in the 70s to low 80s with mostly dry weather expected, however a few thunderstorms are possible (15-20%) Sunday night. The GFS and ECMWF begin to diverge towards the end of the forecast period with when and how the cut-off low reconnects with the jet stream. Scattered rain/thunderstorms are possible as this low merges with the jet stream. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A few to SCT high level clouds are possible overnight, clearing during the daytime hours. High clouds will build back into the area Tuesday evening and persist through the end of the TAF period. Winds will stay light and westerly overnight, increasing after sunrise. Winds will increase throughout the morning hours, with winds becoming sustained around 20kts and gusting to around 30kts. Winds will decrease around sunset and become light and southwesterly Tuesday night. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...Davis