915
FXUS63 KGLD 150132
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
732 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon. The main hazards will be strong wind gusts and hail
  up to one inch. Blowing dust may also be possible with any
  strong thunderstorm winds. An isolated landspout cannot be
  entirely ruled out.

- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
  possible Wednesday through early Thursday morning.

- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday, Saturday,
  Sunday, and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 732 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

Made some adjustments to pops for the current coverage of
rw/trw over the area. Currently, the line of convection in the
east continues a slow push east and will affect areas along and
east of Highway 83 through the next couple hours. These storms
in this line are staying non-severe at this time, with locally
heavy rainfall and small hail with gusts into the 35-50 mph
range at times.

The remaining portions of the CWA are seeing scattered
convection/showers with nothing too organized at this time along
the surface trough over the area. Latest cams, HRRR and RAP,
continue to show bulk of precip over by 06z Wednesday with some
scattered showers thereafter, but overall north of the CWA by
06z. The NamNest is a bit more aggressive by not lifting
activity until the 06z-09z timeframe.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

For the rest of this afternoon, expect temperatures to climb into
the 80s in most locations.  A boundary has set up, extending from
Trenton, Nebraska to Goodland, Kansas to Kit Carson, Colorado.  This
can be seen on visible satellite and faintly on radar.  A couple of
storms have developed near the boundary in eastern Colorado. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected over the next several hours, moving
west to east.  Models are showing the potential for two rounds of
thunderstorm activity.  The first round will move through the area
this afternoon and could produce some strong to severe
thunderstorms.  The main concerns will be hail and wind; however, a
landspout may also be possible near the boundary.  The second
potential wave of storms will move through late this evening into
early tomorrow morning.

Wednesday, an upper trough moves into the region.  Cooler
temperatures are expected, with highs in the low to mid-70s.
Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will be possible.  There is
a chance that a few areas could get some decent precipitation out of
them.

Thursday, a few lingering chances for rain will be possible in the
morning.  There may be a few isolated showers or storms in the
afternoon, mainly for areas south of the interstate.  Temperatures
will be slightly warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Friday, a pattern change will bring dry weather to the region.
Westerly flow will set up over the region as a broad upper trough
moves in from the PACNW to the Dakotas.  High temperatures are
currently expected to be in the 80s for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

A dry and warm start to the extended period is forecast as the area
looks to be between two systems.  Warm area looks to be in place
across the SW CONUS and then spread northward through the High
Plains. High temperatures in the 80s are currently forecast.
Dew points are currently forecast in the 30s to 40s which should
help keep heat indices below the actual air temperature
therefore mitigating any potential heat risk concerns. However
due to this being one of the more warmer couple day stretches we
have seen so far this year, some may not be quite acclimated to
the warmth. I do have some concerns for how warm it actually be
as moisture will remain in place. GFS also has a surface high
in place with with NNE winds which may advect in cooler air from
that area; the climatological days that usually give us the
warmest air are when southerly or southwesterly winds are
present.


The latter portion of the extended looks to become more active as a
trough sets up across the SW CONUS emanating multiple waves of
energy across the Plains. Moisture currently does look to be in
place for showers and storms, perhaps severe. Currently the more
favored day for severe weather looks to be Monday as a surface
low develops across SW Kansas. GFS forecast soundings indicate
2500 j/kg of MUCAPE and 0-6 shear in excess of 40 knots. PWATS
will also be on the increase Sunday night on through the new
week so will need to keep an eye on excessive rainfall potential
as well. The potential active pattern does look to continue for
the majority of the week as SW troughing remains in place.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 358 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024

For KGLD, mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast
period. VCTS and even some light showers are possible from
00z-09z Wednesday. Winds, will meander from the southwest
initially around 10kts, going southeast around 02z then
light/variable by 09z. By 14z, north 10-15kts. Variable gusts
up to 25kts are possible due to thunderstorms from 00z-02z.

For KMCK, mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast
period. VCTS and even some light showers are possible from
00z-14z Wednesday. Winds, will meander from the southeast
initially around 10kts, going west around 05z then
light/variable by 09z. By 14z, north 10kts. Variable gusts
up to 25kts are possible due to thunderstorms from 00z-03z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...Wekesser
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...JN