011
FNUS73 KGRR 020900
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Camel, Split and Sock RX...USFS
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
500 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Clouds will gradually increase through today, with rain chances
increasing in the afternoon, and being likely tonight. A few
thunderstorms will be possible beginning late in the afternoon
and tonight.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers likely and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........50 at ignition...Max 71.
RH..................74 percent at ignition...Min 40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northeast at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    East winds around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast 7 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Wind gusts
                    to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4000 ft
                    AGL.
Mixing winds........East 5 to 10 mph shifting to the southeast 15 to
                    20 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....100 /poor/ at ignition. Max...800 /excellent/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (EDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM
Sky (%).........49     65     80     89     91     92
Weather cov.....                     S CHC  CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            S CHC  S CHC
Temp............50     60     66     70     71     70
RH..............74     49     42     40     42     45
20 ft wind......E 6    E 6    SE 7   SE 7   SE 8   SE 9
20 ft wind gust.8      8      12     20     20     14
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   2200   3500   4000   3500   1200
Mixing wind.....E 8    E 8    SE 9   S 15   S 16   SE 15
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
Smoke disprsl...100    180    320    600    800    180

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers likely and
                    chance of thunderstorms.
Temperature.........Min 52.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 9 to 13 mph shifting to the
                    southwest toward daybreak. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms after midnight.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southeast 13 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 10 to 13 mph toward daybreak.
Smoke dispersal.....140 (fair) early in the evening decreasing to
                    60 (poor) late in the night.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the morning. Chance of
                    rain showers through the day.
Temperature.........Max 70.
RH..................Min 40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 7 mph shifting to the north
                    around 5 mph in the evening. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 12 to 14 mph shifting to the northwest 8
                    to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....80 (poor) early in the morning increasing to
                    450 (good) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Jeruzal
Requested by...Nieland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412903.0/GRR
.DELDT 05/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Jeff.nieland@usda.gov