891
FXUS61 KGYX 041048
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
648 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure near the coast will provide dry conditions through
today, with increasing onshore flow and humidity. Thickening
clouds, cooler temperatures, and rain showers are expected by
Sunday as a frontal system approaches New England. Clearing
is likely not coming until Monday behind a cold front. Warmer
and sunnier conditions are expected into Tuesday, then more
unsettled weather returns around the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
648 AM Update...Quick tune up of sky coverage this morning,
along with temperature trends through the dawn hours. Little
change otherwise.

Previously...
An upper level ridge moves toward the East Coast while surface
high pressure centered near Labrador this morning builds south
into the Gulf of Maine today... resulting in another fair
weather day, albeit with increasing onshore flow and associated
clouds. Signs of increasing low- and mid- level moisture
associated with this trend are evident even this morning as
patchy ground fog has developed in most places... and a mid-
level stratus deck has built over portions of the foothills,
where humid NE mid- level flow is dammed against the mountains.

The trend for today will be to mix out low clouds and fog
initially... but build back some stratocu by the afternoon,
mainly over the interior of Maine beneath mixed cirrus decks.
The ridge overhead will keep us dry, however it will be cooler
than yesterday especially at the coast where temperatures may
not or may just barely make it out of the 40s. The warmest and
sunniest spots will likely be in the Connecticut and Lower
Merrimack River Valleys, with highs in the mid-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure extending offshore of the Maritimes combined with
an approaching cold front from the Great Lakes continues to
support southeast flow off the Gulf of Maine... with low clouds
filling into an overcast sky for most places tonight, except for
the upper Connecticut River Valley which benefits from the
Whites blocking humid onshore flow. Some fog and drizzle are
likely to develop too, mainly in southern New Hampshire into
southwest Maine where low- level humidity will be at its
highest.

One of the bigger questions for Sunday will be how efficiently
we`ll be able to mix out low stratus, if at all, before a pre-
frontal trough brings a moisture axis and associated rainfall
across the region. Model trends have been fairly steady with
this wave delivering about 0.2-0.4" for most places... locally
higher, lower elsewhere... Sunday afternoon and overnight. While
ceilings are forecast to lift a bit during the day, hires
guidance coming into view suggests a fair amount of overcast to
persist. Thus between clouds and onshore flow, temperatures will
be limited to the low- or mid-50s... or 40s, nearby to the
coast and if ceilings remain low. A building southeasterly
breeze will make conditions feel a bit more raw as well.

Rain will exit east Sunday night with drier air pushing in
aloft, however at the surface conditions will remain humid with
fog and low ceilings likely. Winds will gradually pull more
southerly and southwesterly, which will at least cut some of the
maritime influence down by Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overview: Unsettled weather expected until a cold front passes
Monday morning. High pressure and warm temperatures arrive the
latter part of Monday, continuing into Tuesday. Additional
unsettled weather is expected mid to late week as broad low
pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes.

Details:Perhaps some remaining drizzle along the coast early
Monday morning, but drying across the CWA should be underway by
mid morning. NW breeze will also kick up to enhance drying
through the afternoon. Should this stay on track, temperatures
will be in for a rebound later in the day with highs in the 70s
possible for southern NH and into southern Maine`s interior.
Tuesday follows up as warm and dry, before another period of
unsettled weather for mid to late week. Current NBM PoPs are
likely overdone due to the wide spread of guidance solutions,
and have tried to emphasize this uncertainty by keeping just a
chance of rain to close out the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Spotty/low confidence IFR/LIFR in FG possible this
morning... clearing to VFR today with increasing light SE or E
flow. Brief MVFR decks possible for interior ME (AUG) this
afternoon. Widespread restrictions expected to develop
tonight... with MVFR/IFR VSBY, CIGs except at KHIE which likely
remains VFR. Some improvement possible on Sun, however
increasing RA chances bring restrictions again during
afternoon/evening. Low CIGs, possibly low VSBY persist at least
along the coast into early Mon.

Long Term...Ceilings should improve to VFR at all terminals
into Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Unsettled weather likely
brings more restrictions from mid-week, onward.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...NE flow 10-20 kts today turns SE by early Sunday
with increasing potential for fog, then rain later in the day
and overnight into early Monday. A few gusts near 25 kts are
possible, with waves 3-5 ft, though conditions will remain
predominantly below SCA thresholds.

Long Term...The cold front will pass over the waters Monday
morning, bringing better vis conditions through Tuesday.
Conditions should remain below SCA criteria with the frontal
passage through at least Wednesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Casey
SHORT TERM...Casey
LONG TERM...Cornwell