Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
252 FXHW60 PHFO 300633 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 833 PM HST Mon Apr 29 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Moderate trades will prevail over the eastern islands through the first half of the work week, while lighter trades over the western end of the state allow for some leeward land and sea breezes. Relatively dry weather will persist through Wednesday, with a few showers affecting windward areas overnight into the early morning hours and developing over interior and leeward areas each afternoon. Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will return Wednesday night and Thursday, bringing a transition over to more typical trade wind weather. The trades will become breezy Thursday night through early next week, and the trade wind showers will likely increase in coverage and intensity as a disturbance aloft moves over the islands. && .DISCUSSION... Currently at the surface, a weakening stationary front is located around 400 miles west-northwest of Kauai, while a 1030 mb high is centered 1700 miles northeast of Honolulu. Moderate trade winds prevail over the eastern islands, while lighter trades remain over the western end of the state. Infrared satellite imagery shows a mix of high and low clouds resulting in mostly cloudy conditions in most areas. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over Kauai County, with mainly isolated windward showers over the remainder of the state. Main short term focus continues to revolve around trade wind trends and rain chances. A front northwest of the islands will remain nearly stationary as it gradually weakens into a trough tonight and Tuesday. Little change is expected in the overall wind forecast, with moderate trades holding over the eastern end of the state, while lighter trades prevail over the western islands, allowing for leeward sea and land breezes. We should see the trades start to rebound from east to west Tuesday night and Wednesday, as the trough west of the islands begins to shift slowly westward. Moderate to locally breezy trades should overspread the island chain Wednesday night and Thursday, with breezy conditions expected Thursday night through early next week as a pair of highs consolidate to the distant north. As for the remaining weather details, relatively dry conditions should generally prevail across the island chain through Wednesday. Brief passing showers will be possible in windward areas overnight into the early morning hours, with a few showers developing over interior and leeward areas each afternoon. We should see a transition over to more typical windward and mauka focused trade wind pattern Wednesday night and Thursday, with wetter trade wind conditions potentially developing Friday through early next week as upper troughing sets up over the state and gradually closes off into an upper low in the vicinity of the islands. && .AVIATION... Hawaii remains wedged between surface high pressure far northeast of the state and a dying stationary front to the northwest. This will allow light to moderate east to east-southeasterly flow to persist tonight through Tuesday. Expect scattered showers along the windward portions of the islands and isolated showers elsewhere. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility may occur with this activity. Land breezes are forecast to transition to sea breezes along portions of the leeward coasts Tuesday afternoon. No AIRMETs are currently in effect. && .MARINE... Moderate to fresh east to east-southeast trade winds will persist during the next couple of days as high pressure remains far northeast of the area and a stalled weakening front holds northwest of Kauai. High pressure will build far north of the state late Wednesday and Thursday, causing trade winds to build into the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory will initially be issued for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui and may be expanded to additional waters Friday or Saturday. Tiny surf will persist along north facing shores through Friday, with a small pulse of northwest swell expected this weekend. A small long period south-southwest swell will fill in tonight, peak Tuesday, and ease Wednesday, followed by small background level surf on south shores for the rest of the week. Choppy surf along east facing shores will decline over the next couple of days, then gradually increase as trade winds rebuild. Rough east shore surf will likely rise above seasonal average Friday into the weekend. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jelsema AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Shigesato