874
FXUS64 KHGX 280901
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
401 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

This morning will start off fairly quiet with mostly cloudy skies
and breezy southerly winds. There may be a few isolated streamer
showers that develop this morning as the southerly winds pump
increased moisture into the region. Some pop-up thunderstorms are
possible during the early afternoon as daytime heating begins to
enhance uplift. But our attention today will focus on an
approaching boundary from the west that may bring strong to severe
thunderstorms. The line of showers and storms will begin to push
into our northern counties (Burleson to Houston County) by the mid
afternoon and continue to slowly push eastwards through the
evening into the overnight hours. Areas closer to the coast will
have a more substantial cap to overcome limiting storm
development, but the cap looks to erode fairly quickly for area
north of Conroe. Areas along the I-10 corridor may get some
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms beginning around midnight
tonight, give or take an hour or two, as the boundary slowly moves
through. The majority of the showers and storms will exit to the
east by 2 to 4am. The atmosphere today and tonight will be
conductive for strong to severe thunderstorm development with all
severe weather threats possible (large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes). CAPE values between 2500-3000 J/kg, lapse rates
nearing 7-8 C/km, and abundant shear will all aid in thunderstorm
development. SPC has maintained the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
along and north of I-10 and Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk for the
coast for today, but added an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for
Madison, Houston, Trinity, Walker, San Jacinto, and Polk counties.
Within this Enhanced area is where significant hail (greater than
2") and potentially strong tornadoes may form. The tornado threat
will be higher during the afternoon through evening hours, with
hail and damaging wind becoming the primary severe threats during
the overnight hours.

In addition to the severe weather threat, locally heavy rainfall
is possible today that could lead to isolated flash flooding or
minor river flooding. Rainfall amounts through tonight will
generally be up to 2", but there may be isolated areas of up to
3-5" where the stronger storms develop or train. WPC continues the
Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for areas north
of Harris County with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for most of
the rest of the region. Will have to pay closer attention to areas
north and east of Lake Livingston that received the most rainfall
last week. Three hour FFG there is around 3-4", which is possible
to exceed with the stronger storms this evening/tonight.

Additional isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible on
Monday due to lingering moisture. Temperatures will remain on the
warm side through the short term with high temperatures in the low
to mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 209 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A wet weather pattern is to expected to remain over Southeast TX
this week, in particular during the first half of the week, as a
series of mid to upper level disturbances and vort maxes move
across the region. Persistent southeasterly flow along with
sufficient moisture (PWs between 1.4 and 1.7 inches) and
instability, will result in periods of isolated to scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms each day. The highest chances
lie among locations north of I-10 for much of the week and would
occur mainly during the mid morning to evening hours, although a
few nighttime storms aren`t out of the question. By Friday, there
is the possibility of a cold front moving into Southeast TX and
stalling near the coast through the upcoming weekend, which could
prolong the shower and storm activity.

With respect to temperatures, the highs will rise a degree or two
each day Tuesday into Thursday, ranging in the low to mid 80s on
Tuesday and increasing into the mid to upper 80s by Thursday. On
Friday, the cooling or warming of the highs will depend on the
timing of the frontal passage as well as the location it is to
stall. For now, carried highs in the low 80s over the northern
half of Southeast TX and mid to upper 80s over the southern half.
The lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s Tuesday night, but
lows mainly in the low 70s are expected Wednesday and Thursday
night. Slightly cooler low temperatures are possible Friday and
Saturday night.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

MVFR ceilings are still expected overnight as a low stratus deck
forms over the region. Winds remain gusty from the SSE in the
15-25kt range. Ceilings are expected to rise throughout the day
on Sunday. Thunderstorms to the west of us will likely decay
before reaching the region, but might still bring scattered
showers in the early morning. Most significant weather is expected
in the afternoon and into the evening as daytime heating, upper
level disturbances, and lingering boundaries initiate widespread
thunderstorm activity. There is still some uncertainty, but latest
model guidance indicates convection firing off in the early
afternoon in the CLL, UTS, and CXO area. They are expected to
become more organized and migrate to the Houston and coastal
terminals around 2-7Z. Localized severe storms are possible, with
strong potential for intermittent heavy rain, reduced vsbys, and
strong winds.

CJ

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect through early Monday
morning. Strong onshore winds will continue over the bays and
Gulf waters through this afternoon. Seas will also remain
elevated, likely to range between 10 and 12 feet over the offshore
waters and 6 to 9 feet over the nearshore waters through tonight.
The bays will be choppy and shoaling is possible. The chance for
minor coastal flooding, dangerous surf, and strong rip currents
will continue today, thus, a Beach Hazard Statement will remain in
effect through this evening. Winds will gradually decrease Sunday
night into Monday morning and seas will subside as the winds
relax.

For the rest of the week, light to moderate onshore winds with
seas of 5 feet or less are expected. Winds will increase on
Thursday, resulting in slightly higher seas. A cold front could
push into the coastal waters on Friday or early Saturday.

Chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on
Tuesday with low PoPs (less than 20%) expected for the rest of the
work week.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  82  69  85  69 /  80  60  20  10
Houston (IAH)  83  71  86  72 /  70  80  60  20
Galveston (GLS)  80  72  80  72 /  40  60  60  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214-
     313-337-338-437>439.

     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ437>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Monday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...CJ
MARINE...24