Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
239 FXUS66 KHNX 022130 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 230 PM PDT Thu May 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Warming conditions will continue through Friday with highs rising to 3 to 7 degrees above normal on Friday. 2. A weekend storm system will bring significant snowfall to the Sierra Nevada and rainfall to the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra foothills as well as breezy to windy conditions across the mountains and deserts. 3. High temperatures are forecast to cool to around 10 to 15 degrees below normal by Sunday. 4. Dry weather and a warming trend will take place Monday through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Dry and mild conditions, with some moderate gusty breezes, continue again today across central California in a northwesterly flow aloft. We will remain unseasonably warm on Friday in advance of an approaching low pressure system dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska. High temperatures on Friday will be around 3-7 degrees above normal values for early May. The incoming low pressure system will begin to impact our area by Saturday, bringing cooler temperatures, stronger gusty winds and significant amounts of rain and mountain snow. QPF is around 1/4 to 1/2 inch along the east side of the San Joaquin Valley, increasing to as much as 1 to 1.25 inches higher up in the surrounding terrain below the snow line. Up to around one tenth of an inch is expected farther west and in the south end of the Valley, as well as for the Kern County mountains. Little to no precip is forecast for the desert areas of Kern County. Snow levels will start out at or above 8000 ft Saturday morning as the precipitation arrives, falling to 5 to 6 thousand feet by Saturday night and to 4 to 5 thousand feet by Sunday morning as the snow is coming to an end. The low end forecast(90% chance for at least this amount) shows around 1 to 3 inches over much of the Sierra above 5000 ft, with around 5 to 10 inches over the highest elevations. The high end forecast(10% chance for this amount or more) shows as much as 12 to 22 inches over much of the higher elevation Sierra. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Sierra above 5000 feet for Saturday through Sunday morning, as the expected snowfall will be impactful to persons traveling and engaging in recreational activities in the Sierra this weekend. Winds will also increase with the passing system on Saturday and Sunday, especially over the mountain ridges and in the typically wind prone areas of Kern County. Probabilities are around 50 to 70 percent for wind gusts of at least 50 mph in these areas. Sunday will see temperatures around 8 to 12 degrees below normal on the backside of the low pressure system, then dry and steadily warming conditions are on tap for the remainder of next week, with highs back to around 3 to 7 degrees above normal by Thursday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior for at least the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory above 5000 feet from 11 AM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ323-326. Winter Weather Advisory above 5000 feet from 2 PM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ327>330. && $$ public/aviation...JEB IDSS..............EW weather.gov/hanford