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000
FXUS64 KHUN 140722
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
222 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Clear skies and light winds have allowed temperatures to cool off
into the low 50s early this morning. Temperatures will likely only
drop a few more degrees before sunrise as mid to high clouds move
in through the early morning associated with a weak shortwave
moving through the MS Valley. Despite lingering high clouds
throughout the day, temperatures should heat up quickly with
afternoon high peaking in the low 80s.

Through the afternoon, surface high pressure to our south will
drift east into the FL peninsula. Winds will increase on the
western edge of the high pressure butting up against surface low
pressure building in the Plains. Breezy SW winds will be present
throughout the afternoon with gusts of 20-25 MPH possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Winds will subside by sunset as surface high pressure continues
east and the pressure gradient relaxes. Monday will see the
lingering impacts of high pressure with one more clear and calm
day with highs in the 80s. Tuesday will mark a pattern shift as an
upper level trough and associated surface low pressure system
continues its journey east.

Tuesday morning the low pressure system will be located in the
Plains with rain, clouds, and severe weather potential extending
well east ahead of the associated cold front. With the best
chances for rain and thunder arriving later in the day on
Wednesday with the arrival of the front, long range models differ
on rain and thunder coverage ahead of the front. The GFS continues
to indicate prefrontal showers beginning Tuesday night with the
EURO favoring a more dry solution with basically no rain until
the arrival of the front. For now, low to medium rain chances were
maintained overnight on Tuesday. Severe potential with any
thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday morning ahead of the
cold front look questionable as very little instability is
indicated in current model guidance. That being said, with
sufficient bulk shear (40-50 KTS) present, more organized
convection is certainly possible with any ongoing thunderstorms
having the potential for gusty winds and frequent lightning.

Better severe weather parameters develop come sunrise on
Wednesday. Moisture advection along and ahead of the front looks
to bring in dew points in the 60s as well as a 500-1000 J/Kg of
SBCAPE moving into NW AL through the day. Actual amounts of
instability will likely depend on prefrontal clouds and shower
coverage. Models again differ in the timing of the cold front
passage however maintain its passage during the daylight hours on
Wednesday. The EURO favors a faster mid day passage which could
limit destabilization while the GFS favors a late afternoon to
evening passage. While exact weather hazards are hard to narrow
down at this this range, it is looking increasingly possible to
see strong to potentially severe storms with the passage of the
cold front on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Rain chances taper off Wednesday night with Thursday looking to be
a dry day as the initial cold front pushes into the mid Atlantic.
Unfortunately dry weather will be short lived as a secondary cold
front associated with a low pressure system moving through the
northern Great Lakes Region moves through the area on Friday.
Overcast skies and low to medium rain chances return Friday
morning and remain throughout the day. Low rain chances and partly
cloudy skies linger on the back side of the cold front on
Saturday with cooler and drier air moving in behind the cold front
through the remainder of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the period
as mid-level clouds increase gradually overnight and into the
morning hours on Sunday. Light winds under 10 kts overnight will
become gusty at times on Sunday from the late morning into the
afternoon out of the SW.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...AMP