366
FXUS63 KICT 300542
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1242 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storm potential returns for late afternoon and evening
  Tuesday along with Wednesday afternoon and evening.


- Pattern will remain active for the end of the work week into
  the weekend with multiple chances for storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Currently have a shortwave trough lifting across the Upper
Mississippi Valley and about to move into the Western Great
Lakes region. Meanwhile, another piece of energy is tracking
across the Northern Intermountain. At the surface, a stationary
front extends from eastern MO down into southeast OK.

Broad upper troughing is expected to expand into the Northern
Rockies and eventually northern Plains by Tue afternoon with a
lead impulse lifting out into the Central/Northern High Plains
late Tue morning. In response, low level moisture will continue
to increase across the Plains with a cold front/dryline expected
to sharpen from eastern Nebraska down into Western OK by late
afternoon Tue. Storms are expected to develop along the cold
front Tue afternoon, with the initial development most likely
over eastern Nebraska, where better upper forcing will be
located. Given minimal capping, confidence is fairly high that
storms will attempt to build south along the front/dryline as
Tue evening approaches. However, confidence is fairly low on how
much storm coverage there will be with the northeast portion of
our forecast area having the higher chances. Mid and upper
winds do not look that impressive but with with CAPE values in
the 2,000-3.000J/KG range, storms will not need much deep layer
shear to produce large hail. In addition, the slow storm
movement could lead to heavy rain potential which may occur
over already saturated grounds over the Flint Hills/southeast
KS.

As the lead impulse lift into the Upper Mississippi Valley on
Wed, a more robust piece of energy will dig into eastern
portions of the Great Basin. As this occurs, rich low level
moisture will work back to the northwest on Wed with a triple
point setting up across west-central KS and a warm front
extending northeast through southeast Nebraska. With an
abundance of moisture/CAPE the main question will be if and how
many storms develop along the dryline/warm front Wed
afternoon/evening, especially since there will be slightly more
capping than on Tue. Current thinking is the most likely area
for development will be near the triple point where convergence
is maximized. Just like on Tuesday, it looks like a high CAPE
low shear environment with HP supercells possible. However,
toward or shortly after sunset Wed low level shear is expected
to improve as low level jet ramps-up. By late Wed afternoon,
the triple point is expected to generally be west of the Great
Bend area with any storms that develop expected to track off to
the east fairly slowly. But just like Tue, confidence on how
much storm coverage there will be is low at this time.

As the shortwave swings across the Northern/Central Plains on
Thu, the better storm chances will be pushed off to the east,
with southeast KS having the higher storm chances on Thu with
most of the area dry on Thu night into Fri. Pattern will remain
active with yet another impulse set to track across the
Northern/Central Plains Fri night which will allow low level
moisture to fly back north and may result in some elevated
convection for Fri night into Sat morning with another front
set to move through the forecast area on Sat into Sat night. So
pattern is definitely looking to stay active.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Isolated showers from a mid-level cloud deck will continue to
affect areas of central Kansas along the I-70 corridor during
the early morning predawn hours. Other VFR conditions will
prevail across central and southeast Kansas thru Tuesday
afternoon. South winds will become strong and gusty ahead of a
cold front which is expected to move across central Kansas
during the late afternoon. As this front encounters better
instability toward early evening, strong to severe storms are
expected to develop southward along the front as it moves into
south central and southeast Kansas. For now have inserted VCSH
in these areas during the evening, though as confidence on timing
and coverage increase with later forecast issuances a prob30 or
tempo group can be expected.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...KED