Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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362 FXUS63 KICT 281046 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 546 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight risk for additional strong/severe storms across the Flint Hills/southeast Kansas today with lingering areal and river flooding. - Periodic chances for showers/storms for mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 After a very busy Saturday, trailing stratiform rain/thunder continues to affect southeast Kansas early this morning with mainly high water issues now. Increasing convergence along the Pacific cold front merger into the dry-line has resulted in a last gasp for a thin/marginally strong convective line of storms moving into the Wichita metro as of 08z where a moderate cape axis resides. Otherwise, best chances for renewed diurnal storms will exist ahead of the front this afternoon across southeast Kansas where instability/shear combo will support a risk for some marginally severe hail and wind. A few post- frontal showers will also be possible under the upper trof, mainly across central Kansas. Dry and seasonably mild for Monday before the pattern turns a bit more active again for the mid- week periods. Moisture will return ahead of the next upper trof moving across the northern Plains by Monday night with the associated cold front moving into the area on Tuesday. An upper trof will try and settle southward across the northern and central Rockies from Wednesday into Thursday with a surface front wavering across the area. Relatively weaker perturbations rippling thru the mean flow ahead of the approaching northern Rockies upper trof look to provide lift along the increasingly moist unstable frontal boundary. A transition to cooler weather behind a cold front later in the week as the main upper trof progresses eastward across mid-America. Darmofal && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 545 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Low CIGS with reduced VSBY are moving across central KS and have arrived at RSL and will do so in the next 1-2 hours at SLN, GBD, HUT, and ICT. CIGS and VSBY will improve towards mid to late morning with VFR returning by early afternoon. Rain showers, currently across eastern KS, will progress east of CNU by 14 with MVFR to IFR continuing through early to mid-afternoon. A few showers/storms are possible near CNU this afternoon but confidence is too low for a mention at this point. Westerly winds at 10-20 kt will decrease this evening and become more northwesterly. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ069>072- 093>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...KED AVIATION...BMB