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000
FXUS63 KICT 101147
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
647 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Modest rain chances (30-50%) today for locations closer to
  the Oklahoma state line.

- Windy and dry on Thursday with elevated grassland fire danger west
  of I-135.

- Warming trend Friday through Sunday.

- Severe storms on Monday and Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

A mid/upper trough over the Southern Plains is progged to lift
northeastward through tonight. Some pops were maintained across
southern and southeast Kansas as the deformation zone just clips our
southern areas keeping some showers in the forecast. We could see an
isolated storm or two but the better moisture/instability will
remain further south and strong or severe storms are not anticipated.

Northwest winds will increase in a dry post-frontal regime expected
to develop across the area tonight and Thursday. Seasonable
temperatures are anticipated with highs in the mid and upper 60s.

Fri-Sun...a mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify over the central
CONUS bringing rising heights/increasing thickness and rising
temperatures across the area. High temperatures over the weekend
will climb into the upper 80s/around 90.

As we move into early next week, a vigorous mid/upper trough will
build into the Rockies before ejecting out across the Central Plains
late Monday. The large-scale setup is looking better for a round of
severe storms late Monday as the mid/upper jet noses into the area
late in the period and the trough lifts negatively tilted across the
area Monday night. Above normal temperatures are expected to prevail
in the wake of this system with highs in the 70s and 80s lingering
through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

VFR conditions expected over the TAF period. There is a 25-30%
chance of showers and isolated storm at KCNU through 18z.
North/northeast winds will increase across the area this
afternoon and remain elevated through the evening before
gusting up to 30kts thru the overnight hours. BKN to OVC
mid/upper clouds will slowly clear from W to E this evening and
overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Increasing north winds and much lower daytime humidity on
Thursday afternoon will result in very high grassland fire
danger for areas generally west of I-135 in central Kansas.
It`ll be much warmer with gusty south winds on Saturday
afternoon. This will result in a very high fire danger for
locations primarily west of I-135.

Very high fire danger may return early next week with gusty
southwest winds and much above normal temperatures persisting
across the area.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...KMB
FIRE WEATHER...MWM