053
FXUS63 KIWX 030048
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
848 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal temperatures Friday, followed by above normal
  temperatures through the middle of next week with afternoon
  highs in the mid 70s to low 80s.

- There are chances for showers and thunderstorms this week. A
  few strong to severe storms are possible late this afternoon
  into tonight, mainly across northwest Indiana and southwest
  Michigan.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

Instability continues to increase on the south side of a warm
front which is advancing northward through the afternoon. We
have already seen a couple of showers/storms over NW Indiana,
but these have weakened considerably as they`ve raced north-
northeastward into the cool sector with more stable conditions.
Diurnal heating in the warm sector and moisture advection will
lead to MLCAPE ~ 1200 J/kg (MUCAPE closer to 2000). However,
0-6km shear of only 20-25kt and relatively unimpressive mid-
level lapse rates will keep the situation pretty tame. If any
updrafts become better organized, the best chance for an
isolated hail or strong wind threat (although DCAPE values
suggest sub-severe winds) would be over far Southwest Michigan
and Northwest Indiana.

Overnight, as the shortwave pivots off northeast into Canada,
upper level divergence/diffluence over our area (coupled with
PWATs increasing to ~1.3in) will aid in more widespread shower
and embeded thunderstorm development out ahead of the cold
front. This will march eastward through the morning, with precip
finally dying off west to east during the afternoon hours. With
the frontal passage and rain/cloud cover, highs will only top
out in the low 70s.

In the long-term, confidence is high that we are going to
remain in an active pattern characterized by above normal
temperatures and daily shower/thunderstorm chances. However, no
significant weather impacts are anticipated at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 808 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

A stationary front was oriented northwest/southeast just south
of the terminals. Storms were generally firing north of the
front the past few hours. There has been a diurnal decrease in
activity toward the start of the TAF period. The atmosphere
remains anomalously moist ahead of more upper level energy
moving north from southeast MO into far southern IL. Expect more
showers and storms as the activity moves toward northern
Indiana tonight and as a cold front approaches from the west.
Refined timing of MVFR ceilings according to the latest guidance
in light of conditional climatology for favored hours basically
from daybreak to late morning.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Norman
AVIATION...Skipper