Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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686 FXUS64 KJAN 070914 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 414 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Today through tonight: The primary weather concern in the near term will be for a marginal risk of severe storms from later this afternoon into the early evening hours. Height falls associated with a shortwave trough crossing the Mississippi Valley will mostly stay to the north of the forecast area, but there should be just enough mid level ascent to initiate isolated storms in what will be a very warm/moist and unstable environment this afternoon, especially over northern/eastern portions of the area. Mid level flow should be marginally sufficient for getting a few supercells capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. We expect this activity to diminish with loss of heating early this evening, and a quiet and mild overnight is expected. /EC/ Wednesday through Monday: No major changes have been made to the forecast for the long term period. Early morning global guidance highlights a 996mb sfc low developing in the Central Plains early Wednesday morning. Heading into Wednesday afternoon, this sfc low will begin to track northeast towards the Great Lakes region. This will allow for a cold front to push towards the southeastern CONUS and interact with the warm/moist airmass around this timeframe, thereby promoting the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday night through early Friday morning appears to be the best chance for any severe weather potential as the frontal boundary pushes further south across central MS. With the environmental parameters highlighting SBCAPE values between 3000 to near 4000 J/kg, bulk shear values of 50-60 kts, and strong mid-level lapse rates we will continue to advertise a Slight and Marginal risk for severe weather in our HWO graphics. Primary hazards with these storms will be damaging wind gusts and hail up to golf ball size, and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Furthermore, the westerly flow, increased wind shear, and high moisture content will lead to several storms producing locally heavy rainfall at times, thus localized flash flooding will be a concern at times. Confidence has started to increase slightly as new model data has started to come in, however there is still some uncertainty regarding how further south the frontal boundary will setup in our CWA heading into late Thursday night and early Friday morning, so confidence in the severe weather/heavy rain threat beyond then is low. Any thunderstorm chances will come to an end Friday as the frontal boundary surges further south out of our forecast area. Heading into the weekend, a 1020mb sfc high will develop in the ArkLaTex region before slowly pushing east towards our CWA. This will allow for quiet weather to settle across the south with cooler-than-normal temperatures expected. Some scattered to isolated showers and storms will be possible heading into Monday. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Have maintained forecast for widespread MVFR/IFR category stratus through early morning in this persistent, warm/humid, southerly flow pattern. Given the stronger boundary layer winds being observed and forecast, fog is not expected to be a significant threat. All sites should observe sub-vfr conditions until mixing brings improvements later in the morning. VFR conditions will prevail Tuesday aftn/evng at all sites, but a few TSRA will be possible and could have brief impacts, especially the GTR/MEI corridor. /EC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 87 72 90 72 / 30 10 20 30 Meridian 89 70 91 71 / 40 10 20 30 Vicksburg 88 72 90 71 / 20 10 10 30 Hattiesburg 89 72 92 73 / 20 10 10 10 Natchez 87 72 90 71 / 20 10 10 10 Greenville 88 74 89 71 / 20 10 10 60 Greenwood 87 73 89 71 / 30 20 30 70 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ EC/CR/EC