296
FXUS62 KKEY 010231
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1031 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Well it looks like wet season may be upon us. KBYX radar showed
showers and even an isolated thunderstorm to the north of the
Chain for much of the late afternoon and into the evening hours.
These showers drifted southwest into the Lower Keys bringing more
rainfall to KEYW with the shower this evening dropping 0.26
inches. This combined with the morning showers brings today`s
total to 0.40 inches so far. Then the showers dissipated over the
Lower Keys but new showers popped up during the evening north of
the Middle Keys with one of these drifting south into MTH. MTH
recorded 0.08 inches total of rainfall for the day so far. All of
this activity has since waned for the Island Chain and points
north, however, new activity has developed over the Straits of
Florida to the south of the Lower Keys which was moving west to
southwest near 5 knots. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in
the mid 70s with dew points in the lower 70s.

Surface high pressure remains in place to the southwest of
Bermuda this evening while maintaining its strength for the time
being. Another high is moving across the Eastern United States
which is beginning to impinge on the previous high. This is
resulting in marine platforms around the Keys observing northeast
to east winds near 10 knots with Island Chain communities
observing 5 to 10 mph.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
The aforementioned surface high southwest of Bermuda will continue
to maintain east to southeast breezes through the overnight. Winds
that remain northeasterly currently are due to the convective
influences earlier this evening but should switch back to east to
southeast. The 00z RAOB this evening showed a fairly moist
profile from the surface up to around 730 mb before drying out
some above this layer to the tropopause. Also, there is a fair
amount of CAPE with values of 1128 J/kg measured and a PWAT value
measured of 1.50 inches. Also, the Key West waterspout index came
in at 40% this evening. Due to this, the forecast remains on track
as residual moisture as well as remnant boundaries from earlier
convection will be the foci for potentially more activity
overnight which we are already seeing over the Straits.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024
There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect
across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high
pressure centered southwest of Bermuda will continue to meander in
the western North Atlantic through mid- week. With the high
slowly weakening, east to southeast breezes will slacken, becoming
gentle to moderate. As the high refortifies in the west North
Atlantic late in the week and into the weekend, an extended period
of generally moderate easterly breezes is expected. Breezes for
this period will tend to peak in the evening and overnight hours,
then lull during the daytime.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period.
Outside of the shower earlier this evening at MTH, both terminals
look to remain dry for the next 24 hours. Though, residual
moisture and boundaries remain in place across the Keys which may
spark further activity later on in the period. Any shower will be
capable of producing convective wind gusts and briefly reduce CIGs
and VIS to MVFR conditions. However, confidence remains low,
therefore, VCSH was left out of the TAFs for now. Near surface
winds are expected to generally be 10 knots or less and mainly out
of the east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  84  75  84  75 /  30  20  10  20
Marathon  84  75  84  75 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV
Data Acquisition.....DR

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