Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
068 FXUS62 KKEY 270800 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 400 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Currently - A robust high centered off the New England coast extends a beefy ridge southwestward across the southeast and Gulf of Mexico. As a result, windy conditions have set in across the Keys area. The incoming airmass remains relatively lacking in moisture. Surface dew points range broadly in the lower 60s. Deep layered ridging is also aligned across our area and this evenings sounding indicated a healthy subsidence inversion based just below 850 mb. Despite the lack of moisture and a backing profile, there is enough there to support low topped light rain/sprinkles that just barely show up on local radars. Forecast - The previously mentioned high will migrate southwards as it weakens slightly through the remainder of the weekend and early next week. While winds may pick up a bit further in the short term, winds will ultimately reverse course and begin trending downwards late this weekend through early next week. Meanwhile, the upper level ridging will lift well north of our area leaving a zonal subtropical jet aloft and nebulous lower to mid level flow. The main impact to our area will be an elevating and weakening inhibition zone. All this along with the robust flow and increasing lower level moisture will just allow for the formation of at least isolated weak showers. Will advertise slight chance PoPs from today onward. While the incoming airmass will become increasingly modified with increasing maritime residence time, dew points will remain on the low side, in the lower to mid 60s, for the next few days. The same idea goes for temperatures. Expect highs to range in the lower to mid 80s and lows, bolstered by the robust flow, to hold in the mid 70s. Heading into mid and late week, the surface high will stall its southward progression north of the Bahamas and then gradually retreat eastward into the Atlantic. As a result, expect temperatures to trend upwards into the mid 80s and dew points steadily climb through the upper 60s. Despite the weakening flow, the lack of mid and upper level ridging and resulting weakening inhibition, and increasingly ample lower level moisture justifies holding onto slight chance pops through the extended range. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 A sprawling high reaching from New England to across the Gulf of Mexico has resulted in freshening breezes on Keys waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Keys waters. Winds are expected to trend upwards a bit more as the high tightens further the local pressure gradient. From late this weekend and early next week, the high will drive southwards towards the Bahamas and weaken slightly. Easterly breezes will gradually relax. Small Craft Advisories will eventually be pared back as conditions improve. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 400 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 VFR conditions and gusty easterly breezes near 15 kts and frequent gusts near 25 kts continue to prevail at both EYW and MTH through the 24 hour TAF period. && .CLIMATE... On this date in Keys Weather History, in 2003, a severe thunderstorm produced a 53 mph gust and 1/2" to 1&3/4" hail over the entire island of Key West for about 10 minutes. This was the largest hail ever recorded in Key West, and tied the largest ever in Monroe County. And in 1980, hail smaller than 3/4" fell in Key West and an F2 tornado hit Cudjoe Key and/or Ramrod Key, resulting In 10 injuries and $250k in damage. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest