Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
344 FXUS62 KKEY 061846 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 246 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 Certainly less shower coverage activity today across the Florida Keys coastal waters compared to yesterday. This is likely a response to modest lapse rates sampled during this morning`s 12z sounding at KEY above a well-mixed layer extending from the surface to around 925 mb. Skies are generally partly cloudy across the Florida Keys coastal waters, with KBYX radar only detecting a few, very isolated showers in the offshore zones. Temperatures are generally in the mid 80s. Despite a decent breeze being observed at our land-based and marine-based observing platforms, dew points in the lower 70s are making it feel a bit uncomfortable outside this afternoon. Stubborn surface high pressure centered in the western North Atlantic will continue to dictate the sensible weather through the end of the work week. A mid-level ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico northeastward to the Mid-Atlantic states will result in a blocking pattern setting up across much of the Eastern United States. Global ensemble numerical weather prediction guidance suggests this ridge will eventually weaken, bringing an upper- level trough eastward by the end of the week. As is often the case, there is pretty good evidence to suggest that the associated frontal boundary will stall and weaken somewhere in the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee on Friday night, not quite making it through the Florida Keys. Overall troughiness will set up over the Deep South thereafter, with waves of deeper moisture possible advecting through the Gulf. Given the time of year and the lack of any capping feature, did elect to introduce at least isolated thunder into this extended forecast. It should be of note that in this pattern, there will likely be somewhat wetter and drier periods. However, since this is over five days out, will go with just a universal, generic slightly above normal rain chances for this timeframe or now. Temperatures will remain above normal for the foreseeable future, with highs generally in the upper 80s, lows near 80 (outside of any brief rain-cooled spots), and dew points in the lower to mid 70s. .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 From synopsis High pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes through midweek. Breezes will veer to the southeast and south and slacken late in the week and into the weekend, as the high shifts southward over the western Atlantic, and a weak frontal boundary stalls north of the Florida Keys coastal waters. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 245 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024 A Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline is posted for the Straits of Florida tonight. From synopsis, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with sky coverage fluctuating between FEW and SCT AOA 2k ft. Near-surface winds remain easterly between 10 and 15 kts with occasional gusts near 20 kts. Rainfall chances will remain low at 10%, so a stray isolated shower is unlikely, but cannot be ruled out. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 86 79 87 79 / 10 20 10 10 Marathon 86 78 87 79 / 10 20 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest