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000
FXUS63 KLBF 202255
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
555 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tonight could be the last night of freezing weather for the
  foreseeable future.

- A strong storm system continues to be predicted to affect wrn
  and ncntl Nebraska Thursday and Friday. No severe weather
  hazards expected across the region at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The upper level disturbance affecting ern Colo/KS and swrn Nebraska
with snow is expected to exit Nebraska early this evening. This
timing is based a forecast blend using the HREF, HRRR, RAP and short
term model blend. Thereafter, there is evidence of dry air moving in
aloft and light winds near or below h850mb. The sfc high pressure
across the nrn high Plains this afternoon will settle across wrn
Nebraska by 12z Sunday morning. Patchy/areas of fog are in place
across swrn Nebraska and the srn Panhandle for the prospect of dry
air aloft and trapped moisture at the sfc.

Given the aggressive nature of the high Plains sfc high pressure
leading to widespread low temperatures in the 20s this morning, the
temperature forecast tonight leans toward the cooler guidance blend
and NBM 50th for lows in the 20s once again. The same strategy is in
place Sunday for full sun and warming temperatures. This suggested
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The warmer short term model
blend is in place Sunday night for lows in the upper 30s to lower
40s. This forecast is based on strong warm air advection associated
with sfc low pressure circulating through the srn Canadian prairies.
The blended wind forecast using the short term blend plus the NBM
keeps winds up overnight and into Monday morning; the forecast
assumes no decoupling and very modest radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The next rain chance is with the arrival of a cold front
Monday night. The NAM and ECM support isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms, mainly across srn/cntl Nebraska. The focus is the
front and the forcing is an upper level disturbance dropping south
through the Dakotas for this event. Moisture transport could be
fleeting, directed toward ern Nebraska and WPC suggested no QPF for
this forecast. POPs are limited to 30 percent for these reasons.

The models are coming into better timing agreement for a strong
storm system progged to affect wrn/ncntl Nebraska Thursday and
Friday. Significant track differences remain ranging from SD in the
GEM to KS/ern Neb in the GFS. The ECM is in the middle favoring nwrn
and ncntl Nebraska. The sfc low could deepen below 990 mb in the GEM
and ECM. Chance/likely POPs are in place beginning as early as
Wednesday night when the region will be under the influence of
strengthening southwesterlies aloft and increasing moisture
advection at h850-700mb.

It is worth noting rain/thunderstorm chances Wednesday night through
Thursday night could be greatly limited by a strong cap, around 10C
at 700mb, as shown by the ECM. The GFS shows this cap weaker, cooler
than 10C. Regardless, both models show the cap weakening with wrap-
around rain Friday which could last into Saturday if the models
track the system slower.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conditions expected at TAF sites through this valid period.

Satellite imagery shows a bloom of cumulus/stratocumulus north
of Hwy 2 that will gradually diminish with loss of daytime heating
and push off to the south. However radar shows some very light
SHRA/SHSN coincident with the main cloud shield south of Hwy 2.
There clouds are also moving southward and expect KLBF will
lose the CIG and become SCT this evening/early tonight with no
impacts from any light precipitation. There is a hint for some
fog across far southwest Nebraska late tonight, and while there
may be some valley fog right over the river do not expect
significant impacts on airfields so will not include with this
TAF issuance.

Winds will be light/variable tonight through Sunday morning.
Once diurnal heating mixes the boundary layer Sunday afternoon,
expect some gusts 20 to 25kt at KVTN but under 20kt at KLBF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...MBS