198
FXUS63 KLBF 252359
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
659 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather potential late this afternoon and evening

- Widespread rainfall through the weekend

- Cooler temperatures this weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The biggest concern in the short term will be the severe
weather potential. Still think the greatest concern for severe
weather will be mostly along and south of interstate 80, however
there is the potential for an increase in a marginal severe
potential across southeastern Panhandle in Nebraska. As the day
has progressed clouds became a little more broken in nature than
the anticipated stratus, which has resulted in a little more
heating with temperatures warming into the mid 60s and resulted
in a little more mixing, with some gustier winds, around 25 to
30 mph. There has also been a slight increase in confidence of a
slightly northward shift for initial thunderstorm development,
previously anticipated initial thunderstorm development to be a
little farther southward into KS, but storm initiation is
starting to favor a northward trend with initial storm
development towards the KS/NE border.

The main uncertainty continues to be on severe storm development.
Although there is greater confidence that thunderstorms will develop
across southwestern Nebraska, for sfc based storms, the environment
at this time still has less than favorable low-level lapse rates,
currently only 5.5 to 6 C/km, but mid-level lapse rates are better
around 8.5 C/km. SFC based CAPE values are around 1000 J/kg and MU
CAPE values have increased to around 1500 J/Kg. Low level moisture
has streamed into southwest Nebraska and even farther north into the
Sandhills where dewpoints have increased into the low 50s. The
greatest threat for severe weather still lies generally along and
south of interstate 80, with the better threat closer to the NE/KS
border, where large hail, gusty winds and an isolated tornado
may be possible. That being said an elevated severe storm could
still be possible outside of I-80 southward area, where there is
a potential for large hail and damaging winds. A mid-level
boundary cross-sects portions of southwest Nebraska, generally
a line from Arthur to Farnam, where north and east of this line
would expect storm intensity to lessen as it moves into a more
stable environment.

The upper level low will be slow to move out of the area and
hang around through Friday night. As far as rainfall goes, tonight
through Friday night there is the potential to see amounts of
0.5 to 1", with localized locations that see thunderstorms
having the potential for greater rainfall amounts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A secondary Low pressure system moves in from the Four Corners
region into the High Plains Region later Saturday, bringing
another round of widespread precipitation across western and
north central Nebraska. Rain showers are expected to continue
through the day Sunday before tapering late Sunday night into
Monday. Could see rainfall amounts around a half inch, possibly
more in localized areas that could see more training of showers.
On Saturday, temperatures will cool down across the Sandhills
into northwest Nebraska with highs only in the low 50s, but
temperatures will still manage to reach the 60s to low 70s
across southwest Nebraska into southern north central Nebraska.
Widespread cool temperatures expected on Sunday as highs
struggle to get into the upper 40s to low 50s.

After Monday the upper level Low will translate to the northeast and
the flow will become more zonal. Drier conditions will return and
warm air moves in with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Poor flying conditions across central and western Nebraska
through the majority of this valid period.

Gusty winds will continue as CIGs lower to IFR shortly after
issuance as showers and thunderstorms develop/push up form the
southwest. The most likely timing for showers/thunderstorms at
KLBF will be through about Midnight, followed by a lull, then
redevelopment by early Friday morning. For KVTN most likely
timing will be 10PM until 2AM with a similar lull and redevelopment
early Friday morning. CIGs will slowly rise through Friday
morning into the afternoon, though any return to VFR conditions
will likely hold off until near the end of this valid period.
Some gusty conditions will return Friday afternoon as winds
become northwesterly.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...MBS