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000
FXUS64 KLCH 241125
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
625 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

High pressure remains the main factor influencing our weather and
will continue to be so through the middle of the week, with
mostly clear  skies and calm conditions. 

The cool weather has come to an end, and highs will return to the
80s along with  humid conditions. The persistent warm air
advection will continue today. This will lead to the possibility
of fog in the early morning hours. On Thursday, a front will
extend across north Louisiana. This will increase our pressure
gradient and winds. Winds will be from the south, around 15 to 20
mph, with gusts up to 25 mph. A wind advisory will be possible for
Thursday. Offshore winds will be faster, and a small craft
advisory will be needed. Friday will be similar to Thursday: windy
and cloudy, but with gusts up to 30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

As the forecast period begins, high pressure at the surface will
be off the southeast US coast ridging into the forecast area
providing southerly flow that will bring in warm and moist Gulf of
Mexico air. This will provide very warm and muggy conditions. The
main story however will likely be the winds. Deep low pressure is
expected to form over the Southern Plains that will tighten the
gradient across the region. South to southeast winds are currently
projected to be sustained in the 20 to 25 mph range with gusts
around 35 mph. Therefore, there is a good chance that a wind
advisory may be needed for Saturday.

Similar warm, muggy, and breezy conditions for Sunday. The only
difference will be the upper level ridge will begin to weaken and
shift to the east. This will allow a short wave to move west to east
into the forecast area late in the day. By that time, plenty of Gulf
moisture will be around with PWAT values ranging from 1.5 to 1.75
inches, with the higher values above the 90th percentile of SPC
daily climo. Also, the higher numbers will be over western portions
of the forecast area. Therefore, rain chances will be introduced to
the forecast for southeast Texas and west central Louisiana to
coincide with the higher moisture values and weakness aloft.

Decent instability will also be noted on Sunday afternoon and
evening with CAPE values over 2000 j/kg to go along with progged
slow storm motion speed with movement becoming parallel to the mid
level flow. Therefore, with the high atmospheric moisture content,
the stronger convection will have some potential to produce high
rainfall rates over a prolonged time for a location. Therefore, WPC
will have southeast Texas into a small portion of west central
Louisiana outlined in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) Potential
for Excessive Rainfall.

The weakness aloft will continue to expand east on Monday and
Tuesday keeping the atmosphere unsettled enough that showers and
thunderstorms will remain in the forecast during that time period.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period. Winds
will be from the south today slowly increasing in speed. Fog may
form Thursday morning dropping visibility to MVFR levels.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Onshore flow will slowly increase today with winds building to 10
knots by the evening. During this time waves will be less than
four feet. Starting on Thursday winds will start to increase
becoming moderate to strong. Winds will continue to increase
on Friday with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves will also build in the
outer waters possibly reaching 7 feet or more by Friday morning.
Lakes and bays will be rough to very rough conditions. A Small
Craft Advisory is likely starting on Thursday and lasting through
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  82  61  85  65 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  81  64  82  70 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  83  64  85  69 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  83  65  83  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14