Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 171520
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
820 AM PDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm conditions will prevail through the mid-
week. Locally breezy north-northeast winds can be expected today
followed by light winds Monday through Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...Dense fog has formed over portions of northern Nye
county this morning. It is expected to burn off later this
morning. Updated the forecast to account for the fog. No other
updates planned. Text products will be sent shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 218 AM PDT Sun Mar 17 2024/

SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...Tranquil weather can be
expected through Monday night. High pressure aloft has
strengthened across the PacNW, including the northern half of NV.
The upper low responsible for the showers in northern Nye and
southern White Pine Counties has traveled south and no longer
affecting the CWA. No precipitation is in the forecast, and
temperatures will increase slightly each day. Afternoon highs
today will primarily be in the 50s to lower 60s, and Monday will
be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Clear skies and light winds will
cause temperatures to fall below freezing tonight, and it will
mostly be in the 30s Monday night. It will be slightly breezy
today with NNE winds gusting to 20-25 mph, and winds will be light
on Monday.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Saturday.

Blocking upper level pattern over the western U.S. finally breaks
down Monday night into Tuesday, with a flat ridge over the region
through Friday. Model ensembles continue to trend POPs lower over
the middle of next week, with the latest NBM run removing nearly
all shower activity that was earlier progged for northern Humboldt
and Elko counties over the Wednesday and Wednesday night time
frame. The NBM has also lowered POPs on Thursday, currently
holding on to a 15-25% chance of showers to areas north of I80 in
Humboldt and Elko counties, and east of the Ruby mountains and
across White Pine county in eastern NV. The NBM is holding onto
shower activity across portions of northern and eastern NV on
Friday, with weak instability under diffluent southwesterly flow
aloft. POPs on Friday are also trending lower. An upper level low
off the Pacific NW coast Friday will begin to push onshore by
Saturday, which will bring increasing moisture and instability to
the CWA, and the best chances for widespread showers in the long
term period for northern and central NV. High temperatures are
expected to be 10-15 degrees above normal through the long term
period with upper 50s to upper 60s for most locations each day,
with overnight low also well above normal, generally in the 30s.

AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions
through St Patrick’s Day Sunday. Winds continue be light to breezy
out of the NE at 5KT to 15KT with gusts up to 25KT possible. Upper
low to the south will again keep low CIGS possible for KELY and
KTPH during the morning hours, but CIGS rise during the afternoon
as upper lows drifts farther south and weakens.

KBAM remains AMD NOT SKED due to communication disruption.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

86/99


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