194
FXUS64 KLZK 270524
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1224 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Looking at the big picture, a broad upper level trof will remain
over the western 2/3 of the country, with several vigorous
shortwaves rotating thru the trof and lifting into the upper Plains.
The overall pattern thru the period will remain southwesterly aloft
with several shortwaves rippling thru the flow.

At the surface, the forecast area is now entirely in the warm
sector, with a warm front north of the area in MO, and a dryline
located over OK. There has been quite a bit of cloud cover and
convection across portions of the state this morning into early this
afternoon. Of note is an area of partial clearing extending from
south-central AR up to NE Arkansas where temperatures are a bit
warmer than surrounding regions.

Models have been all over the place on instability forecasts for
this afternoon and evening. Observations show quite a bit of
instability in eastern OK, but I believe the model forecast
instability over the western portions of AR are very questionable,
considering the extensive cloud cover and earlier convective
activity.

As for the potential for severe weather this afternoon and tonight,
I am adopting more of a wait and see approach. With the model
instability forecasts all over the board, and sim radar forecasts
quite diverse, I feel like the most realistic scenario will be a
band of convection over western AR extending into north-central AR,
with the possibility of a second band developing from SW Arkansas
into NE Arkansas.

We have collectively been discussing the possibility for instability
being high enough for severe convection this afternoon and tonight.
Our thoughts are that there may be a narrow window of opportunity
late this afternoon into early evening, but if stronger convection
does not develop by then...it likely will not get going in AR.

Severe chances will be on the slate again on Sunday...where it looks
like chances will be much better over a greater portion of the state.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Main feature in the long term will be a storm system in the Plains
dragging a cold front toward Arkansas Sunday night. Ahead of the
front, showers and thunderstorms will be widespread, and some storms
could be severe in the west. This will be a heavy rain event, with
two to more than three inch amounts possible. Some flash flooding
will likely result if this much precipitation materializes.

The system will track toward the upper Midwest and well to the
north. The front will become parallel to a quasizonal flow, and will
stall across the region. This will keep the pattern somewhat
unsettled in the days to follow, with mostly diurnal convection
expected. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should pop up each
afternoon, and pretty much dissipate after dark.

By Thursday, large scale troughing will build this way from the
Rockies. A new cold front will try to push through from the
northwest, and will bring better chances of showers and
thunderstorms.

Slightly cooler and drier air will follow the front on Friday.
Otherwise, above average temperatures are expected overall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will impact all terminals to begin the
forecast period. Flight category will become degraded with lowering
CIGS early Saturday morning across all sites to MVFR flight category
through midday on Saturday before lifting to VFR flight category by
Saturday afternoon. Surface winds will gust in excess of 25 knots
across all terminals for the majority of the period beginning late
Friday night throughout the day on Saturday. Low level wind shear
will be a concern across the northern terminals of KHRO and KBPK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     82  66  79  64 /  80  20  50  90
Camden AR         84  66  81  64 /  40  10  50  80
Harrison AR       78  63  72  59 /  70  50  90  70
Hot Springs AR    82  66  78  62 /  70  30  70  80
Little Rock   AR  85  67  82  66 /  60  20  60  90
Monticello AR     87  66  84  67 /  30   0  30  60
Mount Ida AR      81  64  76  61 /  70  40  80  90
Mountain Home AR  79  64  75  61 /  80  30  80  90
Newport AR        84  66  81  65 /  60  10  40  80
Pine Bluff AR     85  65  82  65 /  50  10  40  80
Russellville AR   81  65  77  62 /  80  40  80  90
Searcy AR         83  63  80  64 /  70  20  50  80
Stuttgart AR      84  66  81  67 /  50  10  40  70

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...74