Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
000
FXUS64 KLZK 180522 AAA
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
Quasi-zonal flow pattern aloft will become more zonal by tomorrow,
with an embedded shortwave moving thru the flow.
At the surface, cyclogenesis will spin up a surface low on the lee
of the Rockies, which will track easterly overnight over OK into
eastern MO. Southerly surface flow from the Gulf into AR is
continuing to bring deeper moisture into the region.
A trailing surface cold front will start to push into NW AR during
the day. Models show little or no capping along and ahead of the
front tomorrow, and sfc based CAPE values will top out in the
vicinity of 2500 j/kg during the afternoon hours.
Thunderstorms should start to become more widespread during the
afternoon hours, and the cold front looks like it will push rapidly
thru the state during the evening and overnight hours.
Deep shear is lacking, but near the surface it looks like there will
be an adequate amount of directional shear which could cause some
rotating updrafts in a few stronger storms.
Overall the slight risk from SPC looks reasonable for tomorrow.
The front will bring a considerable cool-down to the state. Highs
tomorrow will be in the 80`s statewide, dropping about 15 degrees in
most areas by Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY/SUNDAY:
At the sfc, a cold front will track across Arkansas during the day
on Friday before becoming a stalled boundary near the I-20 corridor
across Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi by Friday night just south
of the CWA. The now, stationary front, although south of the state
still allow for increased rain and isolated thunderstorm chances to
persist into the Saturday and much of Sunday before being ushered
southward toward the Gulf Coast of the CONUS and away from the CWA
by later Sunday into Sunday night. Expect showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the state ending over this timeframe and ending
on Sunday from north to south across the state over time.
Temperatures over this period aided by overcast skies and rain-
cooled air will be below normal for low temperatures and near normal
for high temperatures.
MONDAY/TUESDAY:
Sfc high pressure builds in between two frontal boundaries in
conjunction with upper level ridging over the Rocky Mountain region
of the CONUS that will slide eastward toward the state which will
equate to fair, dry, and quiet weather to begin next week. Expect
mostly to partly cloudy skies over this period with temperatures
beginning a rebound from near to below normal on Monday to slightly
above normal on Monday.
NEXT WEDNESDAY:
The next SWT approaches the area and the weather conditions overall
become unsettled across the Natural State with increased POP chances
returning to the region. Temperatures with respect to both low and
high temperatures will be above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024
Some lower cigs expected across area terminals closer to daybreak
with some improvement expected throughout the day. While some
terminals will see VFR conditions Thursday, some MVFR cigs will
persist at times. Rain and storms are possible after 19/00z from
north to central Arkansas. Overall coverage is still in question,
but went ahead and introduced some prob30 groups to account for
the possibility. Winds will generally be S-SW with gusts
approaching 20 kts at times during the day. A cold front will
begin to move from N-S across the area near the end of the
period, bringing N-NW winds in its wake.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR 86 55 69 50 / 50 70 10 30
Camden AR 84 61 71 53 / 30 60 20 30
Harrison AR 86 48 66 46 / 60 30 10 30
Hot Springs AR 84 58 69 50 / 40 70 20 40
Little Rock AR 87 60 70 53 / 40 80 20 30
Monticello AR 84 63 72 56 / 30 60 20 30
Mount Ida AR 84 56 69 50 / 40 60 20 50
Mountain Home AR 87 49 68 47 / 70 50 10 30
Newport AR 86 56 69 52 / 50 80 10 20
Pine Bluff AR 85 60 69 54 / 40 80 20 30
Russellville AR 88 55 70 51 / 50 60 20 30
Searcy AR 86 56 69 50 / 50 80 20 30
Stuttgart AR 84 60 69 54 / 40 80 20 30
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...67