National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KMAF 161726
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1226 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Quiet weather in the short term forecast. WV satellite imagery
shows the upper level low responsible for our windy day on
Monday is quickly moving up and into the Central Plains, leaving
dry southwesterly flow aloft in its wake. Even after a Pacific
front moved through last night, temperatures won`t be much cooler
this afternoon as breezy downsloping winds will push highs to the
80s, a few degrees above normal. The gusty winds will combine with
low humidity to produce elevated fire weather conditions today,
and more can be found in the Fire Weather Discussion below. The
pattern remains fairly steady into Wednesday as temperatures
continue to warm slightly with flow aloft switching more zonal,
and highs should return to the low 90s for much of the region.
While a bit warm for this time of year, it will be enjoyable
weather today and tomorrow with the short term bone-dry.

-Zuber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

By Wednesday night, zonal flow will be the rule over West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico, as a broad trough takes shape across
the northern tier of the CONUS. The warming trend that begins on
Wednesday will continue into Thursday, which looks to be the
warmest day of the forecast. To the north of the area, a strong
cold front will be making its way southward, and ahead of this
feature, a surface low will induce westerly downslope flow
Thursday afternoon. The one-two punch of the downslope flow as
well as compressional warming ahead of the advancing cold front
will see highs Thursday afternoon soar into the 90s for most of
the area, with 80s across the higher terrain and northern Lea
county, and 100s along the Rio Grande. The timing of this front
will dictate just how warm it gets, though if it speeds up, it
could potentially wreak havoc on forecast highs Thursday
afternoon. But, for now, the front looks to arrive Thursday
evening, accompanied by much cooler air in time for the end of the
week and the weekend. Temperatures Friday are progged to cool
sharply for most, with highs in the 60s and 70s north, to 80s
south, and 90s/100s confined to the Rio Grande Valley.

As the front moves through the region Thursday night and Friday, a
southern stream short wave to the west will see a shift to
southwesterly flow aloft, and a surge of mid-level moisture that
will bring much-needed rain back to the forecast. Ascent
associated with the front and passing shortwaves embedded in the
flow aloft will maintain shower and thunderstorm chances beginning
Friday afternoon and continuing through the weekend, with the
best chance for measurable precipitation (40-80%) across the
eastern half of the area. It`s still uncertain how much rain will
result, as amounts would be highly dependent on convective versus
non-convective precipitation, but any moisture would be welcome.
Persistent northeasterly to easterly surface flow through the
weekend will also maintain the cooling trend, with highs in the
60s and lower 70s possible by Sunday. Mid-level ridging is progged
to develop to the west of the area early next week, with
increasing thicknesses yielding a warming and drying trend, with
temperatures progged to start moderating back into the 70s and 80s
next Monday.

JP

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Gusty west
winds of 10 to 15 knots will decrease to 10 knots or less this
evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

In the wake of yesterday`s system, winds today will be
significantly lighter, though remain breezy from late morning
through the afternoon. 20ft winds around 10-20 mph are expected
areawide with intermittently higher gusts, with winds a bit
stronger across the higher elevations. ERCs continue to tick up,
eclipsing the 75th percentile areawide, and the 90th percentile
along the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys. Thus, despite the more
marginal winds today, high ERCs, continued above normal
temperatures, and dry to critically dry fuels will maintain an
increased IA potential. Thus, a Fire Danger Statement is in effect
for Southeast New Mexico and most of West Texas this afternoon
and early evening. Conditions will only see marginal improvement
tonight as winds diminish, with poor recovery forecast west of the
Pecos River, and fair to the east. Very dry conditions and above
normal temperatures persist through Thursday, maintaining elevated
fire weather conditions each day for at least portions of the
area, mainly due to ERCs, low RH, and drying fuels, given winds
will remain lighter. A cold front arrives by Friday that will
bring cooler temperatures and potential wetting rains this
weekend, providing a reprieve from heightened fire weather
concerns.

JP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring              MMM MMM MMM MMM /   0   0   0 MMM
Carlsbad                MMM MMM MMM MMM /   0   0   0 MMM
Dryden                  MMM MMM MMM MMM /   0   0   0 MMM
Fort Stockton           MMM MMM MMM MMM /   0   0   0 MMM
Guadalupe Pass          MMM MMM MMM MMM /   0   0   0 MMM
Hobbs                   MMM MMM MMM MMM /   0   0   0 MMM
Marfa                   MMM MMM MMM MMM /   0   0   0 MMM
Midland Intl Airport    MMM MMM MMM MMM /   0   0   0 MMM
Odessa                  MMM MMM MMM MMM /   0   0   0 MMM
Wink                    MMM MMM MMM MMM /   0   0   0 MMM

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM....84
AVIATION...Daniels