969
FXUS64 KMAF 261110
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A Pacific front continues to move across the area this morning with
a few storms along the leading edge. Behind the front, winds have
switched to the west with drier air filtering in. Stronger winds
aloft will mix to the surface by afternoon with gusts 20-30 mph for
most locations. Highs will generally be in the 80s with 90s confined
to the Rio Grande.

Another storm system will take shape over the Four Corners region
early Saturday. Height falls ahead of this system will help pull low
level moisture back west across the area. A short wave will move
across the area Saturday morning helping to generate an isolated
shower or storm across mainly the eastern Permian Basin. As the
storm lifts into the Front Range of the Rockies by afternoon, the
dryline will slide east before stalling somewhere over the eastern
Permian Basin. Temperatures look similar to today with highs
generally in the 80s/90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The beginning of the long term marks the *brief* end of moisture and
storm chances with the passage of the next trough on Saturday
evening. Any storms that develop along the dryline/Pacific front
Saturday evening will quickly be out of the area with westerly winds
shoving the moisture to the Hill Country. After a weak shortwave
early Monday, upper flow returns to quasi-zonal through mid-week.
This induces lee troughing and allows low level moisture-rich return
flow to resharpen the dryline up against the higher terrain with
better moisture lingering for the eastern 2/3rds of the area for the
remainder of the week. Forcing does not arrive until the next trough
sometime Wednesday/Thursday which brings about the next storm
chances.

Temperatures will be a touch cooler on Sunday compared to Saturday
behind the Pacific front but high temperatures quickly return to the
90s by Tuesday as the low level thermal ridge restrengthens.
Increased cloud cover with the incoming trough mid week brings
temperatures a little closer to normal for the tail-end of the week.

-Munyan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will increase by
late morning with gusts 25-30 kts by afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

The Pacific front has been surging through the region early this
morning, shoving all of the low level moisture well to the east by
this afternoon. Critical humidity overtakes the region today with
single digit RH anticipated south and west of the Pecos. However,
winds will be significantly lighter than yesterday, but still
sustained around 20kts for the northern counties. For today`s fire
threat, there are conflicting signals overall, with the strongest
winds aligning with RH closer to 15 percent and lighter winds found
further south where RH will be more like 5 percent. Adding ERCs into
the mix, most of the region is at or below the 50th percentile
except for the lower Trans Pecos where ERCs are at the 75th
percentile. So despite RFTIs peaking around 4-6 for a few hours this
afternoon, will generally classify today`s fire risk as near-
critical. As such, have opted to issue an RFD for today for the
Southeast New Mexico Plains southward through the western high
terrain and into the Big Bend.

As for tomorrow, winds restrengthen as the next trough approaches,
especially across the Southeast New Mexico Plains and western high
terrain. Similarly dry conditions seen today persist for Saturday
along with poor overnight recovery tonight. Between the increased
winds and slightly degraded ERCs after today`s dry conditions,
critical fire conditions should develop and have issued a Fire
Weather Watch for these locations.

Saturday marks the end of fire concerns for the near future. Winds
relax for Sunday and Monday and despite dry conditions persisting,
fire concerns stay low. Much better moisture recovery returns by
Tuesday with minimum afternoon humidities only falling to 20-30+
percent through the remainder of the week.

-Munyan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               85  58  86  54 /   0  20  20  30
Carlsbad                 82  54  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   91  61  94  59 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Stockton            88  56  91  55 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           73  53  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    81  53  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    79  45  81  42 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     84  58  84  55 /   0  10   0  20
Odessa                   84  58  84  55 /   0  10   0  10
Wink                     86  55  85  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Saturday to 1 AM CDT
     /midnight MDT/ Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-
     Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-
     Eastern Culberson County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000
     Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-Lower Brewster County-
     Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

NM...High Wind Warning from 6 AM Saturday to midnight MDT Saturday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Chaves Plains-Eddy Plains-Lea-Sacramento
     Foothills and Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...29