047
FXUS64 KMAF 141834
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
134 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

An unseasonably warm day is underway across the region, with
temperatures on track to top out in the lower to middle 90s for
most, with upper 80s in the mountains, and lower 100s along the
Rio Grande in the Big Bend. A rather diffuse dryline has taken
shape, extending southward across the central Permian Basin across
the Lower Trans Pecos, and while the threat is very conditional
given a lack of forcing for ascent and available moisture,
isolated thunderstorms are possible across the eastern Permian
Basin late this afternoon into early evening. Given surface
dewpoint depressions east of the dryline around 25-30F, storms, if
they develop, would be high-based and capable of mainly a strong
wind threat, with storms moving eastward and weakening quickly
after sunset. A quiet night will follow, with lows in the 60s for
most as southeasterly return flow and the nocturnal low- level jet
keep moisture elevated overnight.

Another unseasonably warm day is on tap for Wednesday, with
temperatures near today`s highs, ranging from the middle to upper
80s over the higher terrain to 90s across the plains, and lower
100s along the Rio Grande in the Big Bend. The dryline will be
more pronounced on Wednesday, with low-level RH progs indicating
it will sharpen up across the western Permian Basin southward
across the Lower Trans Pecos by early afternoon, and gradually mix
eastward through the day. The precise location of the dryline
will dictate where storms develop, with heating and diurnal mixing
expected to be enough to facilitate convective initiation late
Wednesday afternoon along the dryline. Unlike today, there will
also be upper support, albeit weak, as a subtle shortwave embedded
in the southwesterly flow aloft translates across the region
during the late afternoon and early evening. A better chance for
strong to severe storms exists to the north of the area across the
Panhandle and South Plains ahead of an approaching cold front,
though given increasing shear and modest instability, a non-zero
severe risk exists across the eastern Permian Basin Wednesday
afternoon and early evening. Expect storm chances to ramp up after
sunset, coincident with the passage of the aforementioned
shortwave as well as the retreating dryline and concurrent
development of the nocturnal low-level jet, though storms that
develop would grow upscale and move east out of the area. Rain
chances may linger across the Western Low Rolling Plains
overnight, but most will be dry, with lows once again in the 60s
for most, with 50s in the mountains and portions of Southeast New
Mexico.

JP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A chance of showers and storms is possible late Wednesday into
Thursday with an a short wave trough approaching from the west
providing lift for development of convection. Highest rain chances
will be across the northern and eastern areas of the Permian
Basin, but rainfall amounts are likely to remain a few tenths of
an inch at most. Severe is possible over easternmost areas of the
Permian Basin Wednesday evening into Thursday, with thunderstorm
risk extending west into the SE NM plains. In wake of this trough
and associated surface cold front, temperatures will be near to a
few degrees below normal, with highs mainly in the 80s aside from
90s and higher along the Pecos River in West Texas and near the
Rio Grande, and lows in the 50s, 60s across the eastern Stockton
Plateau into Rio Grande. Following these cooler than average
temperatures ridging will settle in. Late this weekend into next
week, a transition to more zonal flow and building ridging could
deliver the first 100 degree highs to Midland/Odessa this year,
with NBM showing widespread highs in the upper 90s and highs 10 to
15 degrees above normal, lows up to 10 degrees above normal, with
highs in the 90s and above and lows in the 60 and above. However,
magnitude and extent of hot temperatures will depend on the
strength and location of the upper jet, forecast to be located
over northern New Mexico and the Texas panhandle. Westerly
downsloping winds will contribute to warmer than average
temperatures, while a shift of the jet to the north would allow
cooler and more humid air from the Gulf of Mexico to remain in the
basin, keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler. At this time,
most mid-level and upper air systems are forecast to bypass the
area to the north and west, so we aren`t expecting a high chance
of precipitation over most of the area at this time. However, we
are expecting hot and dry conditions, which will lead to increased
fire weather concerns next week as a dryline sharpens mainly to
the east of the area into the middle part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Southerly to
southeasterly winds will also continue, becoming elevated and
intermittently gusty this afternoon and tonight, especially at
INK, MAF, and FST as the nocturnal low-level jet develops. CNM and
PEQ are likely to see a westerly to northwesterly wind shift late
in the period, though speeds there will remain under 12kt. Any
storms that develop this afternoon are expected to be to the east
of area terminals, with no local impacts anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               67  92  66  88 /  10  20  20  40
Carlsbad                 60  94  62  85 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                   68  96  68  97 /   0  20  20  10
Fort Stockton            68  96  66  92 /   0  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           62  84  60  78 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                    60  92  57  83 /   0  10  10  30
Marfa                    54  88  56  85 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     67  92  65  89 /   0  20  20  20
Odessa                   68  93  66  89 /   0  20  10  20
Wink                     66  96  62  91 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...84