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000
FXUS64 KMEG 161204
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
704 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

An unsettled weather pattern will kick off today as several systems
will cross the Mid-South over the next few days. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms may be strong to
severe. Windy conditions are expected today areawide, but the
strongest winds will be in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel. Dry and cool conditions do not look to return until
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Return flow at the surface and zonal flow aloft has resulted in
light WAA showers across the Mid-South as of 3 AM. These showers
should begin to taper off early to mid morning and provide a brief
lull in shower activity. A strengthening low pressure system is
on track across the Midwest resulting in a very tight pressure
gradient. This gradient will bring 20-25 mph southerly sustained
winds this afternoon. Probabilities of wind gusts above 25 mph are
high across the entire region with chances (> 70%)of wind gusts
above 40 mph across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel.
A Wind Advisory will go into effect at noon today for the
aforementioned area until midnight tonight. Gusty conditions (up
to 30mph) are likely to occur until the morning after the
expiration of the Wind Advisory.

Confidence remains high for windy impacts today, but confidence is
low to medium in the severe weather setup for today. Associated with
the deep upper low is a slow moving cold front. A linear storm mode
with discrete cell development looks likely late this afternoon into
the evening hours. Shortwave ridging ahead of the line is evident on
deterministic soundings with a dry column between 500-300mb. If the
moisture plume can filtrate through this column, severe weather
chances will increase. CAM soundings are indicative of MLCAPE values
~1000 J/kg and 0-6km shear 50-60kts indicative of large hail and
damaging winds. Hodographs are curved in the lower levels, and given
the storm mode, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Most likely
timing for severe storm development looks to begin around 7pm in
northeast Arkansas, but could develop as early as 4pm.

As previously mentioned, the cold frontal passage does not look to
occur until Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This results in
unsettled weather to occur in the meantime. The front will be forced
out of the region by another low pressure system and weak cold
front. This front is also slow moving as the LLJ is relatively weak
(30-40kts). Despite several days of intermittent rain, QPF for the
next 7 days is generally an inch or less. The current forecast has
the heavy rainfall axis in central Arkansas and to the west.

High pressure will gradually begin to slide in by Sunday morning to
return rainfree conditions. Cooler temperatures are associated with
the high as lows Monday morning are forecast to be in the 40s.
Monday will feel much cooler as dry air and brisk northerly winds
will prevail. Temperatures will begin to warm back to near and above
climatology early next week.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 659 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Strong and gusty southerly winds expected throughout the period
with VFR and dry conditions through late afternoon. Scattered
SHRAs will move into the western TAF sites by early evening as a
cold front approaches from the west. Continued to carry PROB30s at
JBR, MEM, and MKL. IFR and possibly LIFR CIGs will build in behind the
passing frontal boundary.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight CDT tonight for ARZ009-
     018-026>028.

MO...Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight CDT tonight for MOZ113-
     115.

MS...None.
TN...Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight CDT tonight for TNZ001.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...DKJ