Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 231537
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1037 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1034 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

15Z surface analysis places a cold front from the Mid-Atlantic
States back through portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and
Texas near the northern Gulf Coast. Strong cold air advection
occurring behind this front is resulting in elevated winds across
the Mid-South late this morning. A few locations have briefly
reached advisory criteria sporadically but have since decreased
across the area. Thus, will hold off on a Wind Advisory at this
time. GOES-16 visible satellite trends show stratocumulus
encompassing a line from Paris, TN to Memphis and into Forrest
City. Latest short term trends will necessitate an adjustment to
cloud cover into this afternoon along with a slight adjustment to
temperatures. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is in good
shape.

CJC

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Pleasant conditions will exist this weekend with afternoon highs
in the 50s and 60s. Gusty winds and rain will develop on Monday
as a system approaches the Mid-South. A Wind Advisory will likely
be needed at this time. By the end of the week, expect a return to
dry weather with temperatures warming into the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 409 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Hourly surface observations continue to depict gusty winds present
across the majority of the Mid-South. Expect elevated winds to
persist throughout the day with gusts up to 30 mph possible.
Precipitation chances remain low this weekend thanks to
yesterday`s FROPA, allowing drier air to filter to the Mid-South.

By Monday, a broad area of troughing will exist over the
Intermountain West with a shortwave trough ejecting from the
region. Cyclogenesis will occur over the Central Plains, causing a
tightened pressure gradient across the Mid-South. Several models
have a 8-10 mb spread present by the afternoon. Gusty winds will
develop at this time, with the NBM depicting sustained values
around 28 mph. This, combined with gusts in excess of 40 mph, may
yield a Wind Advisory headline for Monday.

Another concern on Monday exists regarding heavy rainfall in the
Mid-South. Ahead of the aforementioned system, PWAT values will
be above the 99th percentile. Rain chances will increase in the
evening hours, with efficient rainfall rates expected. Overall
rainfall totals will range from 1.5 to 3 inches, with locally
higher amounts possible. A flooding threat will materialize during
this time as increased rain rates result in rises on streams and
rivers. We will continue to monitor this system over the coming
days and will update the forecast as new data becomes available.

Rain chances will decrease on Tuesday as a cold front pushes
through the region. The remainder of the week will be quiet with
temperatures warming to the mid 70s by Friday.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Post-frontal MVFR deck will continue to move south through the
Ozarks and lower Ohio River Valley this morning. These deck will
likely affect JBR, MEM and MKL before the mixing layer deepens and
entrains dry air aloft. VFR should prevail areawide by around 18Z.

A relaxing low level pressure gradient should diminish wind gust
potential toward late afternoon.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB


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