Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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995 FXUS62 KMFL 021159 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 759 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across South Florida at the low to mid levels keeping the region under a typical easterly regime. Drier air begins to filter in as a mid-level ridge begins to strengthen in the wake of a weak trough passing through yesterday. Convective activity will be extremely limited today and Friday and anything that does manage to develop along sea breeze collisions will heavily favored over interior and Southwest Florida areas. Outside of a rouge shower or thunderstorm, prevailing conditions will be quite nice with partly cloudy skies and highs in the lower to mid 80s. Across interior and southwest portions of the area, afternoon highs will be a bit warmer in the upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Not much change is expected through the long term period as stout mid-level ridging will maintain the easterly regime across South Florida into next week. This easterly surface flow will allow the eastern breeze to dominate any potential for convective initiation, with east coast metro areas seeing a slight chance for a shower or storm during the early afternoon and and mid to late afternoon for interior and southwest portions of the area. Overall rain chances remain low through the period (less than 20 percent) as drier air and the absence of synoptic forcing should limit widespread convection. For the few showers and storms that are able to develop, the most likely area to see them will be across the Everglades and Southwest Florida thanks to the breezy easterly surface flow. Temperatures will be near to just above normal through the extended period. The highs will rise into the upper 80s across SW FL and interior, while remaining in the low to mid 80s along the Atlantic Coast. The overnight lows will be in the 60s, except for low to mid 70s across the east coast metro areas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 757 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 VFR prevail through 13-14Z, then another round of showers is possible, especially early in the afternoon with sea breeze development. Most of the thunderstorm activity during the late afternoon hours should remain further inland and away from the terminals. Winds will ESE around 6kt through 14Z, then in the 10-12kt range for the rest of the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Mostly benign conditions will continue through the end of the week. There will be chances for showers and a few thunderstorms each day, which could create locally hazardous conditions. Other than the convective threat, there is not expected to be concerns for marine conditions. Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters. Winds will be around 10-15 kts out of the east. && .BEACHES... Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 Breezy easterly flow will lead to an elevated risk for rip currents across all Atlantic beaches through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Highest rip current risk today will be maximized across the Palm Beach County beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 84 73 84 73 / 10 0 10 10 West Kendall 85 70 86 70 / 10 0 10 0 Opa-Locka 86 72 86 72 / 10 0 10 10 Homestead 85 73 84 72 / 10 0 10 0 Fort Lauderdale 83 73 83 73 / 10 10 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 83 73 83 73 / 10 10 10 10 Pembroke Pines 87 73 87 72 / 10 0 10 10 West Palm Beach 84 70 84 71 / 10 0 10 0 Boca Raton 85 73 84 72 / 10 10 10 10 Naples 88 70 89 70 / 10 10 10 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...Culver