Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 231738
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
138 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

...New MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Active weather kicked up earlier than anticipated this morning,
which brought continuous bands of heavy rainfall and lightning to
primarily Mainland Monroe and Miami-Dade counties. Rainfall rates
reached approximately 1-2"/hr to already saturated grounds and led
to ponding and potential flooded roadways. Additional light
scattered showers and storms are possible, but a majority of heavy
rainfall and thunderstorms will likely remain over the Atlantic.
The cold front is rapidly approaching the area this afternoon,
which should bring drier conditions for the remainder of the day
and weekend. Winds will remain breezy and veer to the west-
northwest with the frontal passage, but have weaken drastically
from yesterday`s gusts. Therefore, the Flood Watch and Wind
Advisory have been cancelled. Cloud coverage is keeping
temperatures cooler, but have the potential to reach highs in the
mid to upper 70s. Mainly dry conditions expected overnight and
cooler with overnight lows ranging from the upper 50s to lower
60s.

The shortwave moves off to our east on Sunday and upper level
ridging starts to build into the area. Another cold front will drop
south across the area during the day. While most of the area will
remain dry, a few showers are possible along the Atlantic coast.
High temperatures will range from the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

An upper level ridge will build behind the departing trough Sunday
night into Monday, but lingering energy on the back side of the low
will allow for a couple of light showers to possibly linger Sunday
night. Beyond that, a cooler and drier air mass will usher in over
South Florida as the ridge builds, with dewpoints dropping into the
60s and milder afternoon high temperatures in the upper 70s to near
80. The aforementioned upper ridge will act as a blocking feature to
preclude short-wave impulses from steering towards South Florida,
maintaining mostly dry conditions through the early week period and
into mid-week. Winds will continue to veer out of the east to
southeast as the week progresses in conjunction with a ribbon of PVA
(positive vorticity advection) that may eject into the Gulf of
Mexico and form another low pressure center late this week. In
addition to this veering, moisture advection will increase back into
the region. This could spawn a round of shower and thunderstorms on
Thursday with likely drier conditions again after Thursday, but it
remains a bit too early to pin down. Overall, most days in the long
term period will be dominated by dry conditions and semi-breezy
winds at times.

Afternoon high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected on Monday, with a gradual warming trend into mid-week as
winds subtlety shift out of the south. Afternoon high temperatures
will inch closer into the low/mid 80s by the middle and end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

A low pressure system will continue a gradual eastward drift away from
the region, allowing for VFR conditions to prevail. Brief intermittent
MVFR CIGs cannot be ruled out, though not expected to prevail
through the TAF period. SCT SHRA/TSRA possible over the Atlantic
waters through the afternoon, though generally removed from land
areas going forward. Winds generally W becoming WNW/NW with time,
then gradually N/NE by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Latest forecast guidance for wind speed has diminished in magnitude
compared to prior model runs; therefore have dropped the Gale
Warning for the Atlantic waters. A Small Craft Advisory still
remains in effect for the Atlantic waters until Monday morning, and
the Gulf Waters/Biscayne Bay until tomorrow morning. Dangerous seas
up to around 6 to 9 feet will be possible across the Atlantic waters
through Monday morning.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

A high risk of rip currents remains in effect for all Atlantic
beaches through Sunday, with an elevated risk expected this weekend
for the Gulf beaches. While conditions improve for the Gulf beaches
early next week, the elevated risk will remain for all Atlantic
beaches through at least mid-week due to lingering swell. Dangerous
surf conditions are likely along the Palm beaches beginning Monday
and lasting through at least mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            62  79  66  78 /  10   0   0   0
West Kendall     60  80  63  80 /  10   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        61  80  66  80 /  10   0   0   0
Homestead        61  80  66  79 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  63  78  67  77 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  62  78  67  77 /  10   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   61  80  65  80 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  61  76  65  77 /  10  10   0   0
Boca Raton       61  79  67  78 /  10  10   0   0
Naples           63  80  61  83 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM....WR
AVIATION/MARINE...SRB


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