602
FXUS62 KMFL 270509
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
109 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 702 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Bumped up PoPs slightly for Saturday across the east coast for
some spotty showers off the Atlantic and also along and off the
Gulf coast later in the day where some convergence will likely
kick off some showers over there. Otherwise, the rest of the near
term forecast remains on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

An upper-level ridge is situated across the FL Big Bend and NE Gulf
region as a sprawling surface high remains situated off the NE
Atlantic coast. The 12mb gradient from the center of this feature to
S FL is driving a breezy easterly flow across the region. However,
the overall atmospheric profile remains on the dry side. Daytime
heating has created a shallow well-mixed layer, and there is enough
low-level moisture to continue supporting a low-level Cu field.
However, there is no sufficient depth to this layer. Throughout the
column, ACARS soundings are only showing a PWAT value of 0.5in
currently. Even the 12Z sounding only had a PWAT value of 0.9inches.
This is right on the border of the lowest 10th percentile.

Warm, breezy conditions will continue today and tonight in response.
Winds over the waters are likely to increase overnight as well as
the gradient tightens even further. Overall, though, there is very
little change in conditions for the next few days. A dry, stable
airmass persists with a strong upper-level ridge locked in through
early next week.

Throughout this time-frame, the surface high will gradually sink
south, eventually settling off the FL coast. The prevailing easterly
flow should veer more ESE at that point, and a slight increase in
moisture is expected. A few more shallow showers are possible across
Atlantic waters, perhaps making it into the east coast. However, the
overall synoptic pattern will continue to support a mostly dry and
stable airmass through the entirety of the period.

&&


.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR prevails for the next 24 hours. Steady easterly winds will be
in place with gusts up to the 25-30kt range for all sites. There
is no threat for rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Winds and seas are expected to continue increasing across Atlantic
and Gulf waters this afternoon and evening, with hazardous
conditions expected for small craft. This is expected to last
through the weekend and potentially into early next week, especially
across Atlantic waters. A few isolated showers are also possible
across Atlantic waters, especially closer to the Gulf Stream.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A gusty easterly flow continues to favor a high risk of rip currents
at beaches along the Atlantic Coastline through the weekend.
Remember, if caught in a rip current, relax and float. Don`t swim
against the current. If able, swim in a direction following the
shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for
help.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Dry weather continues into next week as a breezy easterly flow
prevails. While soils are drying out, RH values are expected to
remain above critical thresholds. There are no significant rain
chances for the next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            81  72  80  72 /  10  10  10  10
West Kendall     82  69  81  69 /  10   0  10  10
Opa-Locka        82  71  82  71 /  10  10  10  10
Homestead        81  71  80  71 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  80  72  79  72 /  10  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  81  72  80  72 /  10  10  10  10
Pembroke Pines   83  71  82  71 /  10  10  10  10
West Palm Beach  81  70  80  69 /   0   0   0  10
Boca Raton       81  70  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
Naples           87  69  87  67 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...Redman