429
FXUS62 KMFL 070731
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
331 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

High pressure continues to dominate the benign and warm weather
pattern across South Florida. This will keep generally easterly
to southeasterly flow at the surface for today and Wednesday.
Upper levels remain too dry for strong convection, and today is
likely to be mainly sunny and dry outside of a few scattered
showers and storms that may impact interior and southwest portions
of the area during the afternoon.

A few showers will be possible across eastern areas during the
late morning as the sea breeze pushes inland, but the focus of any
convection will shift towards the interior areas of South Florida
(where the east and west coast sea breeze will meet) by mid
afternoon. On Wednesday, drier air moves in at the mid-levels as
high pressure builds overhead leading to even lower rain chances
for Wednesday afternoon.

High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will rise into the mid
80s across the east coast metro areas, and into the lower 90s
across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024


The Atlantic ridge will shift south as a frontal boundary associated
with a low in northeastern Canada pushes into the Atlantic. This will
lead to the surface ridge axis sitting over southern Florida from mid
to late week period. This will enable a warming trend over several
days with widespread 90 degree temperatures save for sea breeze cooled
areas closer to the coast. Some inland portions of South Florida could
see temperatures reach into the upper 90s, particularly on Thursday
and Friday. Rain chances will remain minimal, though some convection
cannot be ruled out inland. The risk of heat illness will require
monitoring as early as Wednesday as heat index values start entering
the triple digits. As drier air aloft mixes to the surface, RHs across
interior South Florida could drop into the upper 20% range on Thursday
and Friday which could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions.

Late in the week, the next frontal boundary will move across the
southeastern United States but it will lack the support to clear
South Florida. Increasing moisture will lead to more shower and
thunderstorm activity through the weekend as the front settles over
south central to southern Florida. Temperatures will cool slightly
with the additional cloud cover and rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR expected to continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. Some VCSH are possible around APF after 17Z, but with no
significant impacts anticipated. SE winds in the 5-10 kts range
continues over the Atlantic terminals, while APF should again
experience a shift to the SW with the afternoon Gulf breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

A moderate to fresh southeasterly wind flow will remain in place
through the middle of the week across the Atlantic waters while
gentle to moderate southeasterly winds continue across the rest
of the local waters. Winds may become southwesterly each afternoon
across the Gulf waters as a Gulf breeze develops. Towards the end
of the week, winds across all local waters will gradually become
more southerly as a frontal boundary approaches from the north.
Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally remain at 3 feet or
less through the middle of the week while they remain at 2 feet or
less across the Gulf waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Atlantic
Coast beaches through the middle of the week as moderate onshore
winds continue.|

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            86  75  87  75 /  20   0  10   0
West Kendall     88  72  89  73 /  20  10  10   0
Opa-Locka        88  74  90  75 /  20   0  10   0
Homestead        86  75  88  75 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  85  75  86  75 /  20  10  10   0
N Ft Lauderdale  86  75  87  75 /  20   0  10   0
Pembroke Pines   89  75  90  75 /  20   0  10   0
West Palm Beach  86  72  88  73 /  20   0  10   0
Boca Raton       87  74  88  74 /  20  10  10   0
Naples           88  74  90  75 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/BEACHES/MARINE....Rizzuto
AVIATION...17