146
FXUS62 KMHX 040823
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
423 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A meandering cold front will linger over the area today before
retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across
the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to
unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions
are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and
humidity as ridging builds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 0400 Saturday...Ridging aloft persists through the near
term with stalled front currently bisecting the FA over the
Pamlico River and ample low level moisture has led to
development of fog and stratus. Have opted to issue a dense fog
advisory for the entire FA area through 12Z this morning. While
every ob in the FA is not explicitly showing quarter mi VIS or
less, the low level stratus will only help to decrease VIS.
After sunrise, the fog will begin to dissipate, but the stratus
will linger through much of the morning. Weak cold front will
remain over ENC while becoming slightly more diffuse, but moving
very little, with east/southeasterly flow expected most of the
day. Most of the FA is expected to remain dry today save for our
inland zones where showers and iso tstorms associated with a
shortwave traveling NNEward from the Gulf states will pass over.
Temperatures will remain above normal but a bit cooler than
Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s coast to mid 80s
inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 0400 Saturday...Upper level ridge axis slides offshore
this evening/tonight. Once the 850mb high slides offshore,
moisture content increases through the column as flow in the
lower levels becomes more SSEerly off the Atlantic, increasing
PWATs back over an inch. Upper level precip support by way of
shortwave approaching from the W allows showers to increase in
coverage through the overnight. First, the stalled front will be
the focus of precip, becoming more widespread in the early
morning hours. Lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As 315 AM Sat...Unsettled weather will continue for the first
half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast
and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier
conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in
heat and humidity.

Sunday through Tuesday...Winds will veer to the south Sunday and
then SW Monday and Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds offshore
through early next week. Despite this, a combination of weak
troughing inland and deep moist southerly flow will bring fairly
unsettled conditions through Tuesday. Showers and convection
will be diurnally enhanced and will target the NC coastal plain
the most with Monday and Tuesday likely having the greatest
coverage. Temperatures will be cooler but still above normal
with highs likely in the upper 70s to low 80s Sunday and Monday,
and a bit warmer Tuesday...in the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday through Friday...Drier conditions are expected mid
week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast.
However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued
southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will
afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and
the low to mid 80s closer to the coast.

By late Thursday a potentially strong frontal system will move
towards the East Coast and more unsettled conditions are
expected through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 0115 Saturday...SubVFR flight cats overnight with
fog/stratus in place. At best, IFR expected inland with coastal
sites experiencing VLIFR VIS and CIGs. Fog is expected to
dissipate by 13Z, but subVFR CIGs will linger into at least the
late morning with IFR CIGs lifting from W to E between 13-16Z
and MVFR ceilings then lifting to VFR conditions by Sat
afternoon. Could see an iso shower or tstm especially across
ISO/PGV Sat afternoon as well but confidence is too low to
include this in the TAFs.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Sat...Generally VFR conditions are expected
through mid next week, however increasingly unsettled
conditions could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each
afternoon/evening. Dry and mostly clear conditions expected by
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 0400 Saturday...Dense fog advisory has been issued for all
inland waters. There is fog over portions of the coastal waters
as well, but no way to verify VIS so will have to wait for
daybreak to make decision on whether or not a dense fog advisory
will be needed offshore. Light and variable winds early become
Eerly 10-15kt this afternoon. Recent buoy data shows seas
generally 1-2ft with seas building to 3ft from N to S through
the day to become 2-3ft everywhere with 4ft over outer waters,
highest N and E of Hatt. Showers and tstorms possible this
evening into the overnight hours.

Fog threat persists into the weekend for coastal waters, sounds,
and rivers once again.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 315 AM Sat...Decent boating conditions are expected this
weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next
week.

Winds will come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts, and
continue to veer to the SW by Monday at 10-15 kts. SW winds will
then increase to 15-20 kts Monday night through Wednesday and
could occasionally gust to 25 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4
ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK/CEB