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000
FXUS62 KMLB 170037
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
837 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 837 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A light E/SE flow will continue across the area overnight, as
ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic remains just
north of central FL. Model guidance is still not showing much in
the way of fog development into tonight as dry airmass remains in
place and elevated onshore winds just off the surface will help
promote mixing, so will keep any mention out of the forecast.
Smoke from any lingering or smoldering brush fires though could
lead to locally reduced visibilities on any nearby roadways as
winds continue to weaken overnight. Lows will be closer to normal
in the low to mid 60s across much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 837 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions prevail tonight into tomorrow, with dry pattern
continuing. E/SE winds around 4-7 knots tonight will increase to
8-14 knots into tomorrow, with some higher gusts to around 20
knots possible for coastal locations south of the Cape.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 837 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Ridge axis of high pressure over the west Atlantic will remain
just north of the waters tonight, with E/SE winds up to 10-15
knots. Seas 2-3 feet build up to 4 feet well offshore overnight.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Tonight-Wednesday...High pressure lingers over the western Atlantic
through mid-week, with the ridge axis placed north of the area,
across north Florida. Conditions will remain dry through the period,
as PWATs under 1" persist across the area. Easterly winds this
afternoon will become around 5mph overnight, then increase once
again to around 8-12mph out of the southeast Wednesday afternoon. A
few gusts to around 20mph will be possible along the coast as the
sea breeze develops. Overnight lows falling into the upper 50s to
lower 60s Wednesday morning. By the afternoon, high temperatures
will reach the mid-80s to near 90 west of I-95, as the warming trend
persists. Coastal areas east of I-95 will remain in the lower 80s.
Interior temperatures will be above normal, but remain well below
record highs.

Thursday-Sunday...Temperatures climb well above normal through
the weekend as the high pressure ridge extending over Florida from
the Atlantic shifts south, and ridging over the GOMEX nudges
eastward a bit as troughing over the CONUS flattens the ridge.
Afternoon highs in the U80s-90 inland and U70-L80s along the coast
corridor Thursday afternoon, further increase to the L90s inland
and the M-U80s near the coast Friday, then find another degree or
two Saturday, with even the barrier islands making it into the
U80s. A few high temperature records could be threatened, but as
we get closer to that hot part of the year and records push
further into the 90s, most places will fall short this time
around. The dry conditions will provide some relief, with relative
humidity values dropping as low 30 pct Friday and Saturday, and
even the barrier islands down to 60 pct. 12Z guidance has once
again flipped back to no QPF this weekend, continuing to keep
confidence in rain chances before Monday low.

Monday...(Previous Discussion) Mid level troughing developing
over the eastern CONUS will help push a frontal boundary into the
Deep South and could bring our next best chance for scattered
showers but also storms. Current forecast has a weakening boundary
oozing southward into central FL so have drawn 40 PoPs across the
north and 20 PoPs across the south but timing uncertainties exist
at this long range. While many will welcome some rain, it may
also come with a risk of lightning strikes which could spark brush
fires given the dry antecedent conditions. This will be an
ongoing concern as we enter our peak fire season prior to the
onset of the wet season.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

High pressure will remain in control over east central Florida
through Saturday, maintaining dry conditions and warming
temperatures. Fire weather sensitive conditions will exist today
as wind increase out of the east southeast 10-14 mph with gusts
around 20 mph. Winds will decrease slightly Wednesday and Thursday
and become more southerly as ridge axis slips south across the
area and becomes stationary across south Florida late this week
and weekend. Min RH values will reach at or below critical levels
across the interior each afternoon, falling near 30% today north
and west of Orlando and 30-35% across all the interior Wednesday
through Saturday. Min RH values will hold between 40-50% near the
east coast. Very Good dispersion is forecast this afternoon and
again Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  82  64  85 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  63  87  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  65  81  65  83 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  63  83  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  63  87  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  62  87  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  64  87  66  90 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  62  82  61  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Weitlich
LONG TERM...Law
AVIATION...Weitlich