792
FXUS63 KMPX 010458
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1158 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 11pm Update, the severe weather threat has ended for tonight.

- Unsettled weather pattern continues, with multiple chances for
  rain in the upcoming forecast. The next round of widespread
  rain will be Thursday, followed by additional rain chances
  Saturday and again early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 530 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A pleasant afternoon will quickly return to more rainfall and breezy
conditions tonight. Visible satellite showing partly cloudy to mostly
clear skies across much of central MN and cirrostratus over Western
WI. Radar reflectivity returns an area of scattered showers and
thunderstorms associated with warm front now entering SW MN which
stems from a larger surface low currently located over the SD/NE
border.

The rest of today, CAM guidance feels confident that this initial
band of showers and storms will gradually weaken over SW MN. Over
the next few hours into this evening, an upper-level trough will dig
across the northern plains. The aforementioned surface low will
continue across southern MN and the associated cold front will this
system will tap into a suitable environment capable of producing
strong to severe thunderstorms this evening across central and
southern MN. Timing for the strongest convection reaching central MN
should occur within the next couple of hours, the earliest the twin
cities metro could see storms is 5 PM and most likely by 7 PM. Areas
across western WI can expect the line of storms mainly after 8 PM
into overnight. The primary hazards will be large hail and damaging
wind gusts. Considering the amount of low level shear exceeding
30kts in today`s environment especially along the I-90 corridor, an
isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Once this system departs to our east, we enter a shortwave train
pattern. High pressure will briefly return Wednesday with partly
cloudy skies and temperatures ranging in the mid 60s before our next
wave tracks across northern MN by Thursday. Forecast guidance
maintaining its confidence about likely PoPs once again across much
of MN/WI for much of the day with QPF amounts ranging between
another 0.5 to 1.0" of rain possible. There is also a marginal
chance of severe thunderstorms across southeastern MN but the track
of this low as well as health of the thermal environment will
greatly decide our chances of seeing any severe convection Thursday
afternoon.

On and off chances for rain and thunder will continue through the
remainder of the forecast period which aligns with the current CPC
outlooks indicating a slightly warmer and wetter 14 day period. By
Friday into early next week, temperatures will range in the mid to
upper 60s and low 70s. By early next week, we will need to keep a
close eye on another low that passes through Monday into Tuesday.
Current track and environment would be suitable for more convection.
Still lots on the table before specifics can be solidified but as
mentioned in the previous discussion, keep the umbrella and rain
slicker handy for the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The rain has mostly ended across the region, but MVFR
conditions are possible at the northern TAF sites as clouds sag
south overnight. Winds will be out of the west, eventually
becoming more northwest Wednesday morning, but then they will
shift and become more easterly late Wednesday into Wednesday
evening.

KMSP...Westerly winds will increase, but there is a chance that
stratus will sag down from the north and bring MVFR conditions
later tonight into Wednesday morning. On Wednesday, skies will
clear and winds will become northwest, but then switch to the
east late Wednesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR/-RA likely with IFR possible. Wind E 10-20G30 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25 kts.
SAT...MVFR/-RA. Wind N at 10G15 kts

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JRB