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000
FNUS73 KMPX 230915
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Prairie Flats South...USFWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
415 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Clouds will increase today and there is a small chance
for showers and thunderstorms late this morning through mid-this
afternoon. Any rainfall amounts are expected to be light. Winds will
once again be breezy from the northwest with peak sustained speeds
15-20mph and gusts 25-35mph this afternoon. However, minimum RH values
will be around 50 percent, helping mitigate fire weather concerns.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the morning. Chance of
                    rain showers in the afternoon. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Temperature.........50 at ignition...Max 59.
RH..................58 percent at ignition...Min 51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 12 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Northwest winds 12 to 16 mph shifting to the
                    north around 16 mph late in the afternoon.
                    Gusts up to 28 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /32600 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /97500 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4700 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 25 mph shifting to the north
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....        SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                SCH SCH SCH
Temp............50  52  53  55  55  57  57  58  54  52  49  46
RH..............58  56  57  55  57  53  53  51  57  59  61  63
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..12  13  13  14  14  15  15  16  16  15  14  13
20 FT wind gust.20  21  21  22  24  24  25  26  28  25  24  22
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 3.3 4.4 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.4 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.0
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.20  22  22  21  21  22  23  25  25  23  22  20
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    clear (0-10 percent). Areas of frost overnight.
                    Widespread frost overnight.
Temperature.........Min 28.
RH..................Max 75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 8 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    northeast 5 to 7 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (53300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (2500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 14 to 23 mph shifting to the east 7 to 13
                    mph late in the evening.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Widespread frost early in
                    the morning.
Temperature.........Max 55.
RH..................Min 27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the southeast
                    6 to 8 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (33100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 8 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 8 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Calderone
Requested by...Tracy Ronnander
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411893.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL tracy_ronnander@fws.gov