Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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417 FXUS64 KMRX 190522 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 122 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024 Another update late this evening. Showers and storms have just about ended northern two thirds of the area but still an area in the south closer to upper low spinning across northern AL at this hour. Short term models show this area gradually shrinking over the next couple hours. Have highest rain chances here and lower to the north. Added more fog to much of the area for the late night and early morning hours with all the rain that fell across the forecast area late this afternoon and evening. Any partial clearing should result in fog formation. Updated forecast sent. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024 Key Messages: 1. Scattered showers and storms through this evening. A few strong to severe storms are possible. 2. Patchy fog expected tonight. 3. Most locations dry on Sunday, but showers and storms will linger across the east TN mountains and foothills. Discussion: Scattered showers and storms are ongoing across our area as a weak shortwave/trough is moving in from the west. A few storms may become strong to severe as instability has risen since the morning hours. SPC meso page shows roughly 1500 to 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Effective shear is weak at only 20 to 30 kts, but just enough to perhaps maintain a few stronger updrafts. The main threats with any stronger storm will be 0.5 to 1" hail along with strong and gusty winds up to 60 mph. The coverage of showers and storms should be more isolated north of I-40. Higher coverage is anticipated down across the southern Cumberland Plateau, southern TN Valley and southwest NC. This is where the best forcing will be, along the leading edge of the vortmax. A secondary threat to monitor will be the potential for isolated flooding if we see any areas get repeatedly hit by showers and storms as PW values are around the 90% for this time of year, which increases the heavy rainfall threat. Coverage of showers and storms should decrease this evening with loss of daytime heating, with precip mostly finished by midnight. Patchy fog is expected tonight, especially across any area that receives rain today. Tomorrow should be much drier for most of the area as the trough axis will be centered along the spine of the Appalachian and eastward. However, this does mean that the east TN mountains and foothills will likely see showers and storms through the afternoon hours but non-severe. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024 Key Messages: 1. Drier and warmer on Monday and Tuesday. 2. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms to resume Wednesday onwards, with a warm and humid airmass in place. Discussion: Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will begin to impact the region Sunday night into Tuesday as mostly dry conditions are expected. However, as we continue to approach the summer months with an increasing sun angle, strong surface heating will bring us more towards our typical pattern where a few orographic induced diurnal showers/storms may be possible. This will generally be the case both Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will run near to slightly above normal into the mid-week. By Wednesday broad upper level troughing will span across the northern CONUS as bouts of shortwave energy move through the mean flow aloft. A surface cold front will extend from an associated surface low over the northwestern Great Lakes region southwestward into the southern plains. Recent model trends suggest that this front will slow down and wash out as it approaches our forecast area. As such, ensemble guidance suggest probabilities of 24 hour measurable precipitation on Wednesday have fallen to around 10-30% where as for Thursday values are closer to the 70-90% range. Wednesday may not remain totally dry but Thursday & Thursday night is trending the better day for precipitation at this time. Precipitation chances are expected to persist into Friday as a more potent but quick moving shortwave traverses across the Mississippi river valley through the Tennessee Valley. Warm temperatures and continued moisture availability will lingering additional isolated to scattered chances of diurnal activity over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Main aviation weather concern will be any fog/low cig development early in the period. Right now the best chance looks to be at TRI, and will forecast conditions there down to MVFR/IFR for a few hours. Will also include a tempo group with MVFR conditions at TYS late tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 85 63 86 63 / 10 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 60 83 62 / 10 0 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 82 60 85 62 / 10 0 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 56 82 58 / 10 10 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...TD LONG TERM....KRS AVIATION...