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000
FXUS65 KMSO 161951
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
151 PM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and breezy westerly winds continue
into this evening. An upper trough drops into the Northern
Rockies tonight along with a backdoor cold front coming across the
Divide. A band of snow will accompany the backdoor front reaching
Marias Pass this evening then spreading across the rest of
western Montana into Wednesday morning. Scattered showers will
also occur in north-central Idaho with snow levels near valley
floors early Wednesday.

Median snow amounts generally range from an inch or less for
valleys, then 2 to 5 inches along the Divide. Road impacts should
be mostly limited to occasional snow cover for area passes,
particularly along the Divide. Warm ground temperatures in valleys
should keep any minor snow accumulations to non-paved surfaces.
One area that could be an exception is the higher valleys of
Southwest Montana, where some road impacts may occur Wednesday
morning. Scattered showers will continue area wide Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday morning as the trough lingers.

It will also be rather cool on Wednesday with highs in the 40s for
many valley locations. A northeast breeze will make it fairly
uncomfortable compared to the recent warm weather.

A northeasterly gradient continues Thursday and Friday with
breezy and cool conditions as daytime temperatures remain 5-10
degrees below normal. Scattered showers continue on Thursday
afternoon diminishing into Friday. Breezy winds will keep area
lakes choppy Wednesday through Friday as well.

There is a range of scenarios in the ensembles this weekend into
early next week. The most likely scenario is a return to
seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures (upper 50s to
lower 60s for the lower valleys) with scattered showers by Sunday.
There is a potential (although the minority) for a significant
ridge of high pressure with mostly dry conditions and temperatures
well into the 60s/70s.


&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers and breezy westerly winds continue
into this evening. A backdoor cold front will come over the Divide
this evening bring a band of snow and a northeasterly wind shift.
This front will gradually work southward through the rest of
western Montana into Wednesday morning leading to a period of
lowered ceilings and reduced visibility. Scattered showers will be
ongoing across north-central Idaho overnight and Wednesday with
snow levels near valley floors. Scattered instability showers
redevelop on Wednesday afternoon under cold air aloft.




&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT
     Wednesday for West Glacier Region.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 11 AM MDT Wednesday for
     Butte/Blackfoot Region.

ID...None.
&&

$$