401
FXUS66 KMTR 142325
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
425 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 115 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

Relatively calm and quiet weather pattern persists through the
forecast period bringing a repeat of morning marine stratus along
the coast and valleys and clear skies elsewhere. Inland
temperatures warm into the 70s and 80s each afternoon with a
persistent marine layer keeping coastal highs in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 115 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

Calm weather persists as the low pressure system that sits near
southern California continues to move inland and the ridging pattern
slightly strengthens. Overnight temperatures will be similar to last
night with minimum temperatures reaching in the high 40s to mid 50s.
Wednesday afternoon, temperatures will warm by a few degrees with
inland areas seeing up to mid 70s to low 80s, while the coast will
see temperatures in the 60s. Coastal stratus is expected to rebuild
again tonight as the marine layer still sits about 1,500-2,000 feet
near Ft. Ord. Therefore, don`t be surprise to see another gloomy
morning along the coast and in the valleys with clearing in the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 115 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

The low pressure system sitting along the southwest of CONUS will
continue to move eastward, allowing for a broad high pressure system
over the ocean to slightly influence the area. This will bringing
overall calm weather with some clear skies in the interior areas and
some gloomy morning near the coast from the onshore flow. This
pattern of cloudy mornings and clear skies by the afternoon for the
coastal areas will likely repeat itself through the remainder of the
week into Monday, with a slight chance of early morning drizzle in a
few spots along the coast. The max temperatures will remain in the
60s along the coast, with interior areas reaching up to the mid 70s
to mid 80s. The minimum temperatures overnight will stay relatively
the same through the week with high 40s to mid 50s.

By Sunday through Monday, another low pressure system off the coast
will start to move closer to region. This will bring slightly cooler
temperatures inland. Model ensembles show agreement that no
precipitation will be associated with this troughing pattern thus far,
and calm dry weather will continue into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 425 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

IFR-LIFR stratus lingers through the TAF period at the coast with
VFR through the evening elsewhere. Breezy to gusty northwest flow
will continue through the evening, when winds will diminish through
the night. Widespread IFR-LIFR stratus is expected to develop across
the region in the inland valleys and clear out through the late
morning hours. Any clearing at the coast will be patchy, short-
lived, or both. Breezy onshore winds will also resume Wednesday
afternoon.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the evening with breezy and gusty
northwest winds. IFR stratus expands into the terminal area after
midnight tonight. OAK sees stratus filling in from the Golden Gate
earlier in the evening. Ceilings will clear later Wednesday morning
into another round of breezy northwest winds. Gusts on Wednesday
afternoon and evening are not expected to exceed 20 knots. Some
model guidance is showing a low confidence for stratus at the
terminal on Wednesday evening, although highest confidence for
stratus comes after the end of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... IFR-LIFR stratus lingers at the immediate
coast (save the area around MRY) and will push inland through the
evening hours. Breezy onshore winds will diminish during the evening
and resume later Wednesday morning, as the stratus pulls back to the
immediate coast.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 425 PM PDT Tue May 14 2024

Rough seas continue to abate today and Wednesday as the pressure
gradient slackens and winds decrease. A moderate NW swell will
continue to keep significant wave heights elevated in the far NW
coastal zone. Otherwise, favorable conditions will continue into
the weekend, with stronger NW winds expected next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SO
LONG TERM....SO
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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