830
FXUS63 KOAX 161724
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1224 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry weather prevails through Saturday. Highs will
  range from the mid 70s to the mid 80s.

- Increased chances for thunderstorms beginning Sunday afternoon
  through next week as a more active and potentially severe pattern
  appears increasingly likely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Precipitation has ended across the region. There is some patchy
fog in southeast NE and southwest IA this morning. The fog is
locally dense at a location or two, but not widespread enough
for any type of advisory. A very pleasant day is expected with
mostly sunny skies and high temperatures eventually reaching the
upper 70s with light winds. Overall an outstanding day is in
store.

More of the same is forecast for Friday as surface winds become
southerly and increase over the speeds of today but still maintained
within the breezy category at 15 to 25 mph. It will be warmer
than today and well above normal with high temperatures in the
lower to middle 80s.

Models do indicate a frontal boundary will move through the
region on Saturday. The ECMWF is perhaps a few hours quicker
then the GFS. Moisture is pretty meager, thus will keep
precipitation out of the forecast. Winds will shift to the
northwest through the day at 15 to 25 mph, but it will still be
a beautiful day with highs from the upper 70s in northeast NE,
to the lower to mid 80s along and south of Interstate 80.

We do see a shortwave moving out of Rockies on Sunday, which
brings precipitation chances back to the forecast, with Pops
increasing to 40-60% through the day Sunday, and 50-80% Sunday
night with at least one half to one inch of rain possible. WPC
has placed the entire forecast area in a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall. And there will be some potential for a
severe storm or two, but still several days away for any
certainty. High temperatures Sunday are still warm in the upper
70s to lower 80s, but we`ll have to be wary of those storms
which may dampen the outside enjoyment.

A renewed frontal boundary moves into the region Monday, which
could provide an additional focus for thunderstorm development.
And another subtle shortwave moving out of the Rockies could
increase Pops again into the 50-70% range for Monday night. WPC
again has the entire forecast area in an marginal risk for
excessive rainfall with another one half to one inch of rain
possible for some areas. And while the severe weather threat
becomes a little more murky by then, it`s also not completely
zero either.

By Tuesday, the main upper trough begins to push into the
region, with continued shower/storm chances in the 40-50% range.
With the expected increased cloud cover and areas of rain, highs
are forecast to range in upper 60s to 70s. Again, that far out,
the severe weather threat may be much more diffuse, but
certainly not completely gone either.

And by Wednesday, really feel that precip chances are finally
done, but the NBM blend has about a 20% of what appears to just
be climatological noise, but Wednesday looks more dry than wet
to me. Highs Wednesday forecast in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with FEW to SCT
clouds around 5000 to 7000 ft into early this evening and
passing mid to high clouds on Friday. Light west to northwest
winds today will become southerly this evening with perhaps a
few gusts nearing 20 kts at OFK by mid to late Friday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...CA