Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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095 FXUS64 KOHX 031712 CCA AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected for Wording National Weather Service Nashville TN 1202 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 There are just so many ways one can state that an unsettled weather pattern will persist through this entire forecast period. Looking at the short term part, maybe some breaks in potential rounds of showers and storms, earlier this afternoon and across locations around and west of I-65 corridor on Saturday afternoon. Yes, a few strong storms may be possible at times, but really not expecting any organized severe storm potential. Lows tonight will be seasonably mild in low to mid 60s. Highs on Saturday will also be above seasonal normal values ranging upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Looking into a little bit more detail here, mid state will remain in the warm sector of synoptic surface frontal systems to our west and north with prevalence of southwesterly flow aloft and potentially more upper level disturbance passages than one can count embedded within this flow aiding in these rounds of convective developments. Just like in the short term, some strong storms may be possible at times, but all in all, really not expecting any organized severe storm potential at this time. The only exception to this is the hinting by SPC in its latest Day Five Outlook of strong convection being possible near Land of the Lakes Region on Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to be seasonably warm. As for all these rounds of showers and storms expected, total rainfall amounts this afternoon through Friday afternoon are expected to generally range 2.5" to 3.5." && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Showers have spread across Middle Tennessee this morning, and it appears that low ceilings are soon to move in as the boundary layer becomes more saturated. Rain chances stay with us for the foreseeable future, so get used to these kinds of TAFs. There is some instability in the atmosphere, especially during the afternoon, so we`ve included a few hours of VCTS after 18Z. However, we don`t expect any sort of organized convection, so it is difficult to pinpoint any exact timing of thunderstorm activity due to their scattered nature. Rain chances will taper off (temporarily) by this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 80 66 82 65 / 90 50 70 50 Clarksville 78 63 80 64 / 90 50 50 40 Crossville 74 61 74 60 / 100 50 80 50 Columbia 80 63 80 64 / 90 60 70 50 Cookeville 76 63 76 62 / 90 50 80 50 Jamestown 75 61 76 60 / 100 50 80 50 Lawrenceburg 80 64 79 64 / 90 60 70 50 Murfreesboro 80 64 79 63 / 100 40 70 50 Waverly 79 63 80 64 / 80 50 50 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Rose