Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 240754
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
354 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across eastern Canada and far northern New
England today through Monday, extending into the Mid-Atlantic
region. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure strengthens well offshore
of the East Coast. An approaching front looks to arrive from the
west around midweek with the potential for a coastal low to develop
along it and track northward along the coast by Thursday into
Friday. High pressure may briefly return late Friday before a warm
front lifts northward toward the area next Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure continues to move away northeast of the region with
high pressure gradually nudging southward towards the area as it
moves through the Great Lakes region. As a result, the strongest of
the winds have abated so the Wind Advisory was allowed to expire.
That said, it will still remain blustery into the day today with
northerly winds 10 to 20 gusting up to 25 mph through the morning
before winds further abate in the afternoon as high pressure builds
in. The other story will be the colder temperatures. Generally
expect lows early this morning in the 20s to low 30s but the wind
chill will make it feel a good 10 to 15 degrees colder with even
some single digit wind chill values in the Poconos. By this
afternoon temperatures will rebound to the upper 40s to around 50
for most under mainly sunny skies.

For tonight, high pressure will be centered north of the area over
southern Quebec into New England. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure
spawned from our storm earlier this weekend will be sitting and
spinning well out over the Atlantic as it becomes a closed low
aloft cut off from the main flow. The tendency in fact will be
for it to drift westward slightly closer to the region. It won`t
bring us any more precipitation but it will result in winds
increasing some once again out of the northeast. Generally
expect northeast winds of 10 to 15 gusting upwards of 20 to 25
mph along the coast by Monday morning. This, however, will keep
temperatures from bottoming out so we expect lows mainly in the
upper 20s to low 30s except a bit warmer near the coast due to
the onshore flow.

For Monday, not much change expected as winds will remain a bit
blustery out of the northeast, especially near the coast, while
another mainly sunny day is expected. Generally expect highs in the
low to mid 50s except a bit cooler near the coast and over the
southern Poconos.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The high to our north begins to retreat Monday night into Tuesday
before a weakening cold front begins to approach the area from the
west Tuesday night. Meanwhile there will also be some moisture
spinning westward into the area from the stalled low out over the
Atlantic. The upshot of this is that skies look to become mainly
cloudy by Tuesday though it should stay dry through the daylight
hours. Expect highs for Tuesday once again mainly in the low to mid
50s except a bit cooler near the coast and over the southern
Poconos, similar to Monday. Some rain showers look to be possible
across the area beginning Tuesday night though any precipitation
should be pretty light. The best chances for precip will be over NE
PA into northern NJ. Expect lows Tuesday night mostly in the low to
mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Conditions look to potentially become more unsettled by Wednesday
into Thursday. The weakening cold front discussed in the short term
section looks to move slowly eastward through the area into
Wednesday with the potential for a coastal low to develop along it
and move northward near or off the coast by Thursday. As a result of
this set up, some showers are likely with the front for Wednesday,
especially over eastern PA into northern NJ. The southerly winds
ahead of the front will also bring warmer temperatures for Wednesday
with highs generally ranging from around 55 up to 60, except cooler
over the southern Poconos. By Wednesday night into Thursday,
the best chances for rain will shift towards the coast due to
the coastal low where we currently have POPs in the 60 to 70
percent range.

We should see a drying trend through Friday as the coastal low
departs. Then by Saturday a warm front could bring a few showers
returning to the area. Confidence is low on this though with
POPs only in the 15 to 20 percent range at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Through today....VFR. Northerly winds mainly around 10 to 15
gusting up to 25 knots through this morning before winds
diminish in the afternoon, especially in terms of gusts. There
will also be a slight veering of the wind with time from NNW
early this morning to NNE by  this afternoon. High confidence.

Tonight....VFR with northeast winds generally around 5 to 10
knots except increasing to 10 to 15 knots by Monday morning at
ACY. High confidence.

Monday...Mainly VFR with northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. High
confidence.


Outlook...

Tuesday-Tuesday night...Sub VFR conditions are possible with a
chance of showers. Northeast to east winds 5-10 knots, with
gusts 15- 20 knots possible, especially Tuesday. Low confidence.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...Sub VFR conditions are possible with a
chance of showers. Winds shift to southeast then south during the
day Wednesday, then shift to west and  northwest during the night.
Wind speeds mainly 5-10 knots. Low confidence.

Thursday...Sub VFR conditions are possible with a chance of
rain, especially at ACY and MIV. NNW winds 10-15 knots with
gusts 15-20 knots. Low confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
The Gale Warning remains in effect for the Delaware Bay through 11
AM this morning. The Gale Warning is in effect for the ocean
waters offshore Sandy Hook NJ to Cape May NJ through 2 PM this
afternoon and through 6 PM this evening for the ocean waters
from Cape May NJ to Fenwick Island DE.

NW winds 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt are likely through
daybreak with seas 7 to 10 feet. Heading into the day Sunday
expect north winds around 20-30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt
during the morning. Winds will diminish through the afternoon
below gale force. However Small Craft Advisory conditions look
to continue tonight due to northeast winds 20 to 25 gusting 25
to 30 knots and seas 6 to 10 feet.


Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday night...An extended period of Small
Craft Advisory conditions looks to continue.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...While winds could drop below advisory
levels, seas may remain above Small Craft Advisory levels.

Thursday...Winds and waves may both briefly drop below advisory
levels, before increasing again Thursday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As the coastal system departs into Sunday, it will strengthen
while lingering offshore. This will result in an extended
duration of long period swells and rough surf impacting the
Atlantic coast. Surge values of 2-3 feet are currently forecast
by Monday. This will result in widespread minor coastal flooding
with potential for fairly widespread moderate flooding along
the oceanfront and Delaware side of the Delaware Bay. Thus, have
issued Coastal Flood Watches starting early Monday, but right
now the highest tide appears to be Monday evening`s. Some
guidance has moderate flooding lingering several cycles, but for
now have cut off the watch at 2 PM Tuesday.

Coastal flooding is not anticipated along the eastern shore of
Maryland. However, strong northerly winds developing late
Saturday through early Sunday will result in tidal anomalies
near 1 to 1.5 feet below normal. Water levels are forecast to
reach their lowest point at the midday low tide on Sunday around
1 to 1.5 feet below MLLW. Mariners should use caution
navigating during low water conditions to avoid running aground.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...Coastal Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for NJZ020-022>027.
     Coastal Flood Watch from Monday evening through late Monday
     night for NJZ012>014.
DE...Coastal Flood Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for DEZ002>004.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ430-431.
     Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ450>453.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ454-455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons
NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons
MARINE...Fitzsimmons
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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